Utah vs. Utah State Summary (Louisville Preview)

UTAH UTES
at
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

Date & Time: 6:00 PM MT October 5th, 2007
TV: ESPN (Yes, this is not a typo)
Radio: Kall 700 Location: Louisville, Kentucky
All-time series: Utah leads series 2-0 Last meeting: 1998, Utah 45-22
Tailgate: Away game, so there is no tailgate planned. But since the game is at Papa John Stadium, order in some pizza and enjoy the first and only time you'll see the Utes on a real TV station.

Week in Review: First, my apology for not sending out an e-mail after that debocle in Sin City. I left town the following week. That, combined with the fact that every time I thought about that game, I wanted to vomit.

As for the Utah State game, it was a win. When Urban Meyer was here in 2003, after a rather unimpressive win against Utah State, and with the media trying to get him to diminish the win, he said "this program is not in the position to shun a win against a Division I program." The same couldn't be more true for the 2007 Utes. Sure, it was disappointing to see the offense disappear in the first and fourth quarters. But a win is a win is a win. Utah needed to regain some confidence, give Brian Johnson some reps, and spread the ball around a little more than usual. Were there some obvious areas where Utah needs to improve? Definitely. Most importantly, Utah needs to decide on an offensive scheme. After two serious injuries in his past three games, Brian runs much more tentatively, and the spread option may not be Utah's best system. Also, the entire team needs to improve their blocking (the OL needs to improve run blocking, WRs need to improve their downfield blocking, and Mack needs to improve his pass protection). Defensively, Utah's rushing defense needs to buckle down. The middle DL seems non-existent. If the DTs can't bring more pressure, than they will need to play more aggressively with more blitz schemes.

What to expect this week: While I'm hopeful, the numbers indicate that I'm an idiot. Here are some of those reality-check stats:

1. Utah's total offense: 319 ypg (108th in the NCAA) while Louisville's total offense: 601 ypg (2nd in the NCAA).
Yeah. For those who aren't great with math, that's a big difference. Utah hasn't even cracked 400 yards in a game (even against UCLA).
Meanwhile, Louisville averages 400 yards of passing yards each game (3rd in the NCAA) while Utah averages 227 ypg (71st in the NCAA) The same concern is points per game. 24 for Utah. 46 for Louisville. Again. Big difference.

2. Louisville averages 201 rushing yards per game (25th in the NCAA) and 92 ypg (106th in the NCAA).
So, many people were thinking, Louisville is a passing team, and Utah's defensive strength is passing. Maybe Louisville won't pass as much. Uh. Not so fast. Utah averages 201 ypg on the ground. Out of all of Utah's opponents so far, only Air Force averages more (AFA with 225), and they average that many mostly because of their big game against Utah. Utah's rushing D has to step up and not let their running back, Anthony Allen, average his current average of 6 ypg - or it will be a long day.

3. Utah hasn't proven to be a great road team.
Excluding bowl games, Utah's record is 6-8 on the road. The biggest road win under the Whittingham era has been at BYU in 2005. Besides that victory, they have underperformed on the road against favored opponents.

Why I'm hopeful:

1. Utah's passing D is good. Their ypg (151) is 9th in the NCAA. They're also 11th in the NCAA in pass efficiency D (95.2).
Look for the defensive secondary - namely Brice McCain, Sean Smith, Steve Tate, and Robert Johnson - to cause some rare turn-overs from Brohm. I expect to see frequent blitzes from Tate (at SS) and Sylvester (at LB), hoping to rattle Brohm in the same way that the D rattled Olson.

2. Louisville's D is not good. They give up 417 yards per game to their opponents and 28 ppg - and that's against not-so-great competition. They also have not shown a great ability to create interceptions on defense. If Brian can stay poised, and avoid poor decisions, this could be the highest production (in terms of total yards) that Utah will have thus far.

3. Utah has Louie. Seriously. Special Teams is a big advantage. Utah is 7th in the NCAA in average punt distance (45.3), while Louisville is 7th from the bottom (33). Also, Derek Richards is sixth in the nation in punt return average (21 ypp). Not to mention the fact that Louie is Utah's second best running back on the team, this is a big benefit for the Utes. The problem is that field position hasn't mattered much for Louisville. They punt once or twice per game, is all.

4. I'm a Utah Man, Sir. That's right. I'm a homer, so I don't always base my predictions on reality.
My pick: Utah 37, Louisville 35


Next week: Utah vs San Diego State at Rice Eccles Stadium at 1 pm, Saturday October 13th.
Tailgating in the lot at 11 am.