UTAH UTES
AT
Colorado State Rams
Date & Time: 3:30 PM MT, Saturday, October 27, 2007
TV: Mtn. (??)
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium, Fort Collins, CO
All-time series: Utah leads series 51-22-1 (sounds very similar to the Utah/BYU series, doesn’t it?)
Last meeting: 2006, Utah 35-22
Tailgate: Grill up some Ram Chops on your own. But make it a longer get together so you can tune in to Game 3 of the World Series right after the game. And if you’re a die-hard sports fan, then drive to the CSU game on Saturday, hit Game 4 of the World Series in Denver on Sunday, and stay the night to hit Monday Night Football on Monday.
Week in Review: So, the light turned green again on Thursday, and the ‘good’ Utes showed up for the fourth straight game. To the average football fan – the one perusing the satellite during the commercial break from the baseball game or the South Florida game who happened to stumble across the Versus network – Thursday’s game probably didn’t seem to be very impressive. But as Utah fans, we should be thrilled. Not only did Coach Whittingham win his fourth straight (longest in his career), but it propelled the Utes to .500 in the MWC and put them within two wins (meaning, they have to just go .500 for the rest of their schedule) to hit a bowl game, and maybe, just maybe – if they’re real lucky, a slice of the MWC title. Who would have thunk that would be possible a month ago?? But the Utes have rebounded nicely.
But as for the actual break-down of this game, the best thing to do is just read my preview. As predicted, the Utes forced Dalton to throw by containing the running game, and they did so very impressively. For some strange reason, TCU gave up quickly on the running game, only rushing 21 times. But kudos to Gary Anderson, as he did a brilliant job of preparing for what TCU was going to do, and the D gave so many looks – bringing the house on one play, and only rushing two the next play. The confusion led to two big sacks and FOUR interceptions (it would have been seven INTs, save some better hands and some better eyes by the refs). Tate had a monster day statistically (12 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT (should have been two)) and non-statistically (he was forced to play man to man on many downs, and did a great job of shutting down his opponent). In the end, Dalton couldn’t get anything going, and he finished with just 150 yards passing and 40% completion ratio. Utah’s defense was as prepared and as dominant as we’ve seen them this year. Frankly, if special teams were coached semi-decently, Utah would have given up just seven points in that game.
On offense, Utah started very strong, driving on the ground and in the air, and (believe it or not) finishing with a punch-in from the ONE YARD LINE (seriously!). But the momentum was lost after two horrible special teams plays – first the blocked punt by a player who has blocked four on the year (why didn’t we scheme for him?) and the next kick-off, the coverage was pathetic. So two quick scores within 1:30 let TCU back into it, and made the Utes go much more conservative offensively. But that conservative play would have changed the outcome at UNLV. They stuck to the run, and gave Mack another 100 yard game, and BJ made great decisions. Sure, it was too conservative for my own liking in the second half, but a win is a win is a win. And that was the type of game that Utah would have found a way to lose last season.
My prediction was 26-20, and the final score was 27-20. Why did I say 26? Not sure. But at least if you would have listened to me, you’d be a little richer right now.
What to expect this week: Coach Whit has already pulled out the old cliché – “this CSU team is the best 1-6 team in the nation.” Sure, it’s probably a true statement. But isn’t that kind of like me bragging about being the best athlete in my Thursday night Dungeons and Dragons group? It’s really not saying a whole lot.
But we know what the coach means. CSU cannot be taken lightly. Sure, they had lost 13 in a row, before their big win last week. But this is a CSU team who lost to Colorado by a field goal in OT – just two weeks before Colorado knocked-off Oklahoma. This is a team who lost to Cal by just six points. It’s never easy to beat CSU in CSU. Utah has only done it twice in fourteen years.
Why Utah should win Saturday:
1. CSU’s Defense. CSU has the worst rush defense in the MWC. Worse than SDSU, and in the bottom 15 in the entire NCAA. To give you an idea, they have given up an average of 212 yards per game and five yards per carry on the ground, and have given up 17 rushing touchdowns so far this season. With Mack and the offensive line on a serious roll, Utah can keep this on the ground, control the clock, and have a hay day. Expect Utah to rack up over 250 rushing yards, with Mack accounting for at least 150 of those yards.
Their passing D isn’t nearly as porous, but that’s likely only because teams don’t have to throw on them. They’re still letting opponents complete 60% of their pass attempts, surrendering over 200 yards per game in the air, while managing only five INTs (lowest in the MWC). Establishing the run early will set up a nice play-action, and I’m expecting great play from Godfrey, Richards, and Hernandez. Expect Johnson to throw for at least 200 yards in this one.
2. Utah's Pass Defense. Utah’s game plan on Saturday will be very similar to their game plan for TCU. They will scheme to contain the run, and dare Hanie to throw. Why? Because he has thrown more INTs (12) than TDs this season. They do have a long-ball WR threat in Damon Morton – who is averaging 22 yards per catch and has five TDs. But the Utes should feel confident about putting a speedster like McCain or long-arms Smith on him.
What Utah does not want to give up is the big run play and CSU has a very formidable 1-2 punch in Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell. Johnson had a 45 run against UNLV on Saturday, and he’s averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
Look for Gabe Long and Steve Tate at being instrumental in stopping the run, and forcing Hanie to throw. Then, look for at least two INTs for the Utes.
The Magic Number: Since 2001, Utah is 33-5 (87%) when scoring 30 points or more. CSU is averaging 31.3 points given up per game. The only teams that haven’t scored 30 on them have been SDSU and TCU (and even they came very, very close).
My pick: Utah 31, CSU 17
Next week:
Bye.
No comments:
Post a Comment