Utah vs. Louisville Recap (SDSU Break-Down)

UTAH UTES VS SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS
Date & Time: 1:00 PM MT October 5th, 2007
TV: Comcast Channel 111 (High Def Channel 675)
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
All-time series: Utah leads series 13-12-1
Last meeting: 2006, Utah 38-7

Tailgate: We'll be at our usual spot at 10:30 am - in preparation for the Ute Walk at that time. We'll have some Mexican food, but we'd love anybody who is planning on coming to let me know, and let me know what you'd like to bring so we can plan well.

Week in Review: Sorry for the delay on this week's break-down. I'm in Mexico right now, and I'm having to deliver this via telegram.
Utah vs. Louisville. Wow. That was definitely one of my favorite regular season road trips I've experienced. Louisville is really a cool city, and their fans are great. Honestly, I've never met nicer fans. I'm not used to fans actually welcoming us to their stadium and their tailgates, and going out of their way to be nice. A contrast to attending games at places like Colorado State where the fans also go out of their way, but usually to say "F*#& Utes!" And not only were there fans polite, their players actually came over to the Utah section after the game to give five to all of Utah's fans. Seriously. And Papa John Stadium is really nice - every seat is a bucket seat, it's really clean, great concessions, cool Johnny Unitas (alum) museum, and according to the players, the nicest facilities they've had thus far.
But at the end of the day, we really don't care if the fans are polite or not. The fact is, if the Utes came out playing like they did in Vegas, I probably would have hated Louisville and their fans. But alas, the Utes came out looking like a top 25 team in the first half. They really looked unstoppable. On nearly every drive, Utah imposed their will and it seemed that the only reasons they didn't sustain a couple drives was because of dumb, recognizable errors (like the clock mismanagment at the end of the first half). And as great as the offense looked, the D looked even better. Louisville was averaging over 200 yards per game rushing. At the half, Utah held them to -26 yards. Louisville had allowed six sacks all year, and at the half, Utah had two.
But Utah's allergy or fear to stepping on the opponents throat reared its ugly head in the second half. Despite Utah's success in a Cover 3 in the first half, the coaches decided it would be best to go to a loose zone in the second half, and Brohm and company responded by putting up 400 yards of offense in the second half. That's not a typo. 400 yards in the second half.
Fortunately, Louisville's D is as good as I thought they were, and Brian Johnson and Darrell Mack took advantage of each possession, and ultimately milked out the win by scoring last. But despite the soft ending, it ended up being a very close game, and a great victory for this team. They showed great on national TV, they beat a team that had national championship hopes at the beginning of the year, and they knocked the rust off of Brian Johnson to help him and the team gain confidence.

As for the prediction, well, I'd brag about being so dead on (I picked the Utes: 37-35. Actual score: 44-35), but I'd be creating false expectations for the future. Like the Utes should do, I'll just take my small victory and move on.


What to expect this week: If Utah shows the same desire to win as they have in their three wins this year, Utah wins. San Diego State, while quite talented, is just not a great team. Their wins this year have come against a D-AA school, and Colorado State (who has lost 12 straight games).

Here are the main reasons Utah wins this week:
1. San Diego State's rushing D. SDSU is giving up 184 yards per game, against pretty average competition. With Utah finally finding confidence in their running game (having just rushed for 260 yards last week), I see Mack having his fourth 100-yard game in his last five starts, and Utah should at least get 174 yards for the game. Look for Louks to come in to run the option this week for a few plays. He'll be used quite frequently for the rest of the year.

2. San Diego State's passing D. While we're making jokes of Louisville's passing D, the Cardinals secondary hasn't shown to be as inept as San Diego State's pass defense, as the Aztecs are giving up an average of nearly 320 yards per game (115th in the NCAA). That's a lot of yards. And they have given up 12 TDs in the air in just five games. This is another game where Utah should spread it around, and hopefully give Louie's leg some rest. The Utes offensive scheme has changed, catering to Ludwig's style, and Brian Johnson also looks more comfortable in the drop-back offense. He's showing great patience and great vision - often making passes to his third or fourth option.

3. San Diego State's Pass Protection. While Kevin O'Connel is a very good QB (probably the second best QB Utah will face this year, only behind Brohm), the Aztec O-line hasn't been doing him any favors. They have given up 15 sacks in just 5 games so far this season. For those counting at home, they're on pace to give up 36 sacks on the year. Compare that with Brohm, who is on pace to be sacked just 13 times all year, and you'll see why Kruger, Burnett, Misi, and Puccinelli should be pretty excited for Saturday. It's interesting to note that the Utes have 10 tackles for loss (15th in the NCAA) for a loss of 151 yards (10th in NCAA). The key will be for Utah's front four to get pressure on O'Connell without needing to blitz, as Utah will want to play back and prevent O'Connell from making big plays. I'm expecting no fewer than four sacks for the Utes, with at least one of those sacks resulting in a turnover.

However, if Utah does not exploit this weakness, and does not get adequate pressure on O'Connell, then it could be tough for Utah to stop him from putting up big numbers, especially considering that their #1 WR (Sweeney) is very good WR (averaging over 100 ypg), and Utah's passing D could be going through some learning curves, as Sean Smith is not expected to start this week (coaches are not happy with his poor tackling).

Take note: So far this year, there definitely have been two Utah teams. The team capable of killing top-25 teams, and the team capable of being killed by lousy teams. Here's the trick to determining which Utah team you're watching: watch the tone of the first quarter. As they go in the first, they go in the game. If we see Utah playing conservatively on defense in the first quarter, allowing SDSU to drive fairly easily (even if they don't end up in the end zone), and if we see Utah's offense stall in their first two possessions, be worried. If they come out strong, Utah will come away with their first MWC win.


My pick: Utah 34, San Diego State 17


Next week: Utah at TCU at Fort Worth San Diego State at Rice Eccles Stadium at 6 pm, Thursday October 18th.