Utah vs. SDSU Recap (TCU Preview)

UTAH UTES
AT
TCU HORNED FROGS

Date & Time: 6:00 PM MT, October 18, 2007
TV: VERSUS
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Amon Carter Stadium , Fort Worth , TX
All-time series: Utah leads series 3-1
Last meeting: 2006, Utah 20-7
Tailgate: On your own.

Week in Review: The question going into this game was, which Utah team was going to show up? Unfortunately, getting ready to watch the Utes (of the past two years), I get the same type of nervous feeling that I get when going through customs in Mexico. Don't pretend you don't know what I'm talking about. When the little official-looking guy takes your passport and tells you to "touch de button". It's all random, and you really have no idea what to expect. Will the traffic light turn green. Or will it turn red? Fortunately for us all, it was green, and the good Utah team showed up Saturday. Yea! Darrell Mack showed that his previous three games weren't flukes. The guy is looking legit. He put up 50 yards of offense himself in the first drive. Unfortunately, his big play produced no points (as he fumbled in the end zone). The only gripe on Saturday's game was that the first drive was more or less a microcosm of the rest of the game. The Utes could move the ball at will (520 yards of offense), but they left a lot of points on the field. As expected, Utah exploited the poor rushing D of SDSU.
Defensively, Utah looked better than expected. In fact, they probably looked better than they have all year - including the UCLA game. The only reason that they gave up a TD was because of a gimmick play where their QB had a 35 yard catch. The D came out aggressive, and only gave up 8 first downs the entire game. As expected, they got to O'Connell five times. What's surprising, though, is that at least three of those sacks were coverage sacks. Utah's passing D looked very good, which led to an Aztec offense looking as confused as their coach Chuck Long, who apparently thinks its still cool to sport the Oakley RazorBlade sunglasses (yeah, the Boz retired a while ago).

Those who missed the game (and the red seats indicated that a lot of fans did) missed out on an opportunity to see Utah's future shine. True freshman Corbin Louks threw another TD and also had a 40 yard run. True freshman Jereme Brooks caught another TD pass. True freshman Nai Fotu had the hit of the game, as well as a forced fumble and big sack. It was exciting to see these young kids make such a big contribution so early, and should get you excited for the next few years.


What to expect this week: If Utah really wants to show that they've turned the corner this season, they have to find a way to win on Thursday. In Whittingham's three seasons as the Utes Head Coach, he has never won four in a row. A win at TCU would give the Utes a ton of momentum, get them back to .500 in conference play, and give the fans something to be very optimistic about. But it's not going to be easy. Based on history, you'd give TCU the nod. The Horned Frogs 23-4 home record (since 2003) is one of the very best in the NCAA. In addition, they have only lost one MWC game at home in three seasons in the conference. Even though they get maybe 15,000 home fans to their games, the Horned Frogs are a very tough team to beat at home.

But based on momentum, you'd have to give Utah the nod. In the past two games, the Utes have found a running game (over 250 rushing yards per game the past two games), maintained a great passing game (Brian Johnson is completing over 70% of his passes the past two games), and the D has completely disrupted the opponents game plans, holding each of their opponents well below their season averages (with 8 sacks the past two games, under 110 rushing yards given up in two games combined).

In the end, I'm going with Utah (big surprise), and here's why:

1. Utah's offense. Utah has put up some impressive offensive numbers the past two games. Mack has found his rhythm, and is averaging over six yards per carry. Not only that, Utah is finding other unique ways to put up an additional 100 rushing yards per game - like using Louks on the keepers, using BJ on an occasional option play, and using their receivers on the sweeps. If Utah can be persistent with their running attack, they'll find success. Last week, TCU gave up 109 yards to Stanford's running back - which was his season high. TCU's passing D is much stiffer, and nobody has been able to put up more than 250 yards on the Horned Frogs. Utah should look to get about 220 yards passing, but most importantly, not throw any picks. BJ must show the poise and patience that he has shown in the past two games.

2. Utah's Defense. Utah's pass coverage is as athletic as any that TCU has faced this year. While it will hurt to not have Robert Johnson on the field this game, Sean Smith and Brice McCain will not allow the freshman QB Dalton to get in any sort of rhythm. Meanwhile, Utah's fast D-line (particularly Burnett and Krueger) will be able to get some pressure on Dalton (who is getting sacked about twice per game on average), and hopefully rush him into some poor decisions. The key for the Utes will be to slow Aaron Brown and the rest of TCUs running attack - just like we saw them do against Louisville and SDSU. In fact, Utah's best bet is to force Dalton to throw by focusing more on the run. If they do, Utah should be able to control the game.

The Magic Number: With Gary Patterson as head coach, TCU is 38-0 when allowing 17 points or less. Overall, the Frogs have won 53 consecutive games when holding the opponent to 17-or-fewer points. If Utah doesn't score 17 points, they'll lose. If they can score their season average (27 points), they'll win, as its not likely the Utes will allow TCU to put up more than their average (23 ppg).

My pick: Utah 26, TCU 20


Next week: Utah at CSU at Fort Collins, CO at 4 pm MT, Saturday October 27th.