Utah vs. #11 UCLA

UTAH UTES

VS.

#11 UCLA BRUINS

Date & Time: 3:00 September 15th, 2007
TV: VERSUS TV
Radio: Kall 700 and Sirius Radio
Location: Salt Lake City , Utah
All-time series: UCLA leads 8-0
Last meeting: 2006, Utah lost 31-10

Tailgate: The tailgate was the best part of the game last Saturday. Gordon and Lauren won the wing-eating contest and the band came and hung out with us while Mark Robbins freaked with the "3rd quarter crazy dancing lady" (don't pretend you don't know who I'm talking about). But despite the fun, we did have a low turn-out. As I don't want to buy more than necessary, this week we'll have a BBQ, and everybody can bring their own Bruin meat. Please RSVP to let me know if you're coming. We'll be there for the Utah team walk-by at 12:30, and begin tailgating at 1 pm.


Week in Review: Well, alrighty then. Things didn't get any better against the Air Force Falcons. In fact, they actually got worse. To add insult to injury- Utah added two more critical players to the IR - Brent Casteel tore his ACL in the first quarter, and Gabe Long - Utah's stud defensive lineman who showed ability to stop the run - went out in the 2nd series with a torn MCL.

Let's be fair. The fact is, Utah has had the type of bad luck that only Stephen King could imagine. Even teams like USC and LSU would be having a hard time adjusting if they lost their top 4 offensive players and best defensive lineman within the first five quarters of the season. Sure, those teams might have the depth to be in decent shape still. But there is no doubt that even those teams would be struggling to immediately cope with those same circumstances. Mentally, that's tough for a team to recover from.

However, even with those injuries, Utah should have beat Air Force had they been able to accomplish a few simple things during the game:

1. If Tommy Grady could have eliminated his bad tendencies. Somebody (Ludwig) needs to teach Grady to not run straight to his right after his primary target is covered. Nothing good happens when he runs (except for, some might argue the part-scared, part-laughing, part-indigestion look I get on my face). It's that simple. Just stay in the pocket, my son, and don't panic. And while he did continue to stare straight at his intended receiver, and even though he did throw about five seconds too late on most passing plays, the problems on offense still weren't all his fault. I rarely saw the receivers break back to the ball on broken plays. I never saw the receivers block downfield, which could have helped the outside running game, or helped the YAC on some of the shorter routes. And the predictable (or in some cases, completely unpredictable and unexplainable) play-calling didn't help him much.

2. If they could have stopped - no, slowed - the running game. I mean, come on. With all due respect to our military, it's not like the Utes faced a one-two punch of Ladanian Tomlinson and Stephen Jackson. But our running D couldn't get a stop. To their credit, they did make a big stop, only to have the offense hand it back over five seconds later. But the Utes have got to find a new solution in the middle of the DL.

3. If they could have gotten the running game established. Why the problems running this season? Some have blamed the offensive coordinator. Some blame the position coach. Some blame the offensive line. Some blame the players. I say, take your pick on any given play. there's enough blame to go around. All I know is that, for some reason, 3rd and 4th downs with one yard to go, the Ute offense feels more comfortable doing end-arounds than running right at the D-linemen who have to be small enough to pilot planes. And the last play, Poston had the type of hole in front of him that had everything but a red carpet and a little man with a welcome sign - yet he chose instead to try and leap over a combined 3,000 lbs of beef-cake.

So, how were my predictions? Again, my analysis was spot on. I said that Utah didn't have to worry about the pass, but the the key was stopping the run. And on offense, I said, "they will need to put up at least 20 points. For Grady to be successful, he will need to make the adjustment of not looking at his primary receiver, and make a much bigger effort at throwing sooner."
So, I was right about the keys, but my prediction played out like a Gary Crowton hiring - it felt right at the time, but in the end, it was still wrong.

What to expect this week: Well, many expect to see a blow-out. Utah will have to play without five key starters, and they have to start Tommy Grady - whom UCLA loved seeing last year. On paper, having just seen Utah lose to Air Force at home, it seems very unlikely that the Utes can hang with the #11 team in the country.

With that said, don't go rushing to put money that the Bruins will cover the spread (12.5). I truly think that the Utes could give them a very good game. BYU made UCLA look vulnerable enough that Karl Dorrell had to keep repeating at his press conference that the UCLA offense isn't that bad. Ben Olson threw for just 126 yards against BYU. That's right. Just 126 yards against a defensive secondary made up of names like Kayle Buchanon, Ben Criddle, Colby Hodgekiss. And the Bruins racked up just 236 yards of total offense. If it weren't for two turn-overs, UCLA would be looking at this as a rebound game. My point? The Bruins offense is not that good.

The key on defense is to keep Bell and Markey in check - just like they did last year in Pasadena. If they can hold them to under 130 yards rushing, and if they can keep Ben Olson from getting into any sort of passing rhythm (keeping him below 200 yards passing), Utah has a real shot at pulling an upset. The only way that the Utes can do this, however, is the same way that the Y did - they must be aggressive on D. They need to get QB pressure from our D-line, they need to blitz unexpectedly, and contain the interior line.
It should be interesting to see some of the key changes that the coaches are making this week on defense: Starting Krueger instead of Burnett at DE, moving Newman from DE to DT (they need somebody there), and moving Tate from Free Safety to Strong Safety, and replacing Joe Dale (who has played quite well) with Robert Johnson at Free Safety. With the secondary apparently as athletic and acapble as it is, the D should use the linebackers much more aggressively up front, and use Tate to blitz much more often from the SS position (think Weddle '04).

On offense, it's the same keys as last week. Utah MUST try to establish a consistent running game. This means that they can't give up after a quarter. It also means that they need to mix it up - and not always run when they're under center. They cannot be as predictable as they were last year against UCLA, or as they have been thus far this year. Grady must play like he did on the last drive of the AIr Force game. I realize that the Falcons helped Grady look like a good QB on the last drive by being in a prevent D, but he stayed in the pocket and released his passes sooner, and good things happened. I really don't know what to expect on offense, but I do expect to see some trickery. There will be some players making their debut this week (and Dan, I don't think it will be Astle). Let's hope it's effective. To be in this game, Utah can't have any turn-overs, and must have more than 300 yards of offense.

My pick: Utah 27, UCLA 24 (cut me some slack. It's not like I'm trying to win money here. Plus, we have Louie!!)

Next week:
Utah vs. UNLV at Sam Boyd Stadium at 8 pm PT (9 PM MT) Saturday September 22nd.