UTAH UTES
VS.
AIR FORCE FALCONS
Date & Time: 4:00 September 8th, 2007
TV: MTN (not sure what this is?)
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Salt Lake City , Utah
All-time series: Air Force leads 13-10 (though Utah has won the last four in a row)
Last meeting: 2006, Utah won 17-14
Tailgate: Meeting at the tailgate lot at 1:00. We will be having wings, in recognition of Utah ’s opponent. Please RSVP if you plan to make it, and let us know what you plan to bring, if anything (no obligation).
Week in Review: Wow. If you could imagine the most disappointing results for the season-opener, it probably couldn’t have been much worse than what actually happened. The loss was less of a disappointment than the key injuries to perhaps the two most important players on Utah ’s offense: Matt Asiata and Brian Johnson. Those injuries caused the game to change dramatically. Utah seemed to have all the momentum in the first half until they gave up a 4th and 7 towards the end of the 2nd quarter. That set up an OSU touchdown. But it got much worse. Moments later, Brian Johnson separated his shoulder on an option carry, and Utah ’s ability to move the ball went out with Brian. The second half was miserable, with the Utes converting just two first downs in the second half – the defense couldn’t get a breather, and the OSU front four dominated and paved the way for Yvenson Bernard to run all over the Utes for 171 yards.
While my prediction of the score was pretty off – I think my analysis was right on. For Utah to win the game, they had to be productive on the ground. Had Utah been able to balance their attack and put up over 100 yards, I think it would have been reasonable for them to put up 30 points. When Brian was QB, he was on his way to a pass-efficiency of 160 – which is a very good game. The problem is that, after Asiata went down, Utah could not come close to establish a running game – netting a total of 18 rushing yards. Meanwhile, I predicted that Utah would have to hold OSU to under their average of 120 rushing yards – which seemed reasonable. But that was a tall order after Utah ’s offense took the night off when Brian left. The defense got worn down while playing against a very impressive Beaver offensive line. Bernard was a great running back – but I think most any running back in the NCAA could have had a great night behind that line.
For putting up close to their 2006 average in offensive production (362 average and 370 for the night), they scored right about you would have expected (26 points average and 24 points in the game). It’s obvious that the game would have been very different without those discouraging injuries. We wish Matt and Brian healthy recoveries.
What to expect this week: Who really knows?
Seriously, though, this one will be very interesting. Air Force comes in with a more balanced attack than they’ve had in their history. On Saturday’s game against South Carolina State , Air Force ran out of the I-formation, pro-set, and wish-bone formation. Shaun Carney passed for 174 yards, and the team had close to 500 yards of total offense en route to a 34-3 clobbering the Division I-AA team.
The Utes, however, are preparing hard for the traditional triple-option attack. The Falcons may have had luck throwing against this D-2 squad, but I don’t think that McCain and Sean Smith are terribly worried about the Air Force wide-outs as their passing D was definitely Utah ’s strong point in their opener. However, Air Force has always given Utah difficulties – even when they knew that they were coming in with one formation: the triple-option. Carney is a three-year starter, and is very dangerous on the ground. Utah ’s linebackers MUST come prepared to contain the run. For the Utes to do well, look for big games from Tate at safety as well as the speedier LBs (Sylvester and Jianonni), as their play will be critical for Utah to contain the run.
On offense, Utah needs to make adjustments. Grady is not an spread-option quarterback, and you can’t force a square peg into a round hole. Expect Utah to have more plays under center for Grady, with even some two-back formations. The Utes have decided not to redshirt Darrell Mack, and you can expect to see all three RBs getting carries this Saturday. While the Ute “6-pack” of WRs were non-existent in their opener, if Utah wants to win this game, they will need to put up at least 20 points, and most of their points should come through the air. For Grady to be successful, he will need to make the adjustment of not looking at his primary receiver, and make a much bigger effort at throwing sooner. In other words, he will need to be much better in every way than he was last week. Frankly, for Utah to win, they will need to exploit the small and slower secondary of the Falcons, and I expect Godfrey and Hernandez to be the main targets again – as they are the most reliable WRs at getting open.
My pick: Utah 24, Air Force 14
Next week:
UCLA Bruins vs. Utah at Rice Eccles Stadium at 3 pm, Saturday September 15th.
Tailgating in the lot at 12 pm.
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