Utah vs. Wyoming Recap (New Mexico Preview)

UTAH UTES
VS
NEW MEXICO LOBOS

Date & Time: 3:30 PM MT, November 17, 2007

TV: The Mystery Channel (Mtn)

Radio: Kall 700

Location: Rice Eccles Stadium, SLC, UT

All-time series: Utah leads series 29-17-2

Last meeting: 2006, New Mexico 34-31

Tailgate: We'll be meeting at 1 pm for the Ute Walk. Then we’ll be having some catered grub, so I will need you to RSVP. I guarantee some good grub – but I’ll only order enough for those who RSVP. Just like last week, everybody must go to the game on Saturday. We need a sold-out crowd. This is the final home game for the seniors (unless you count the game at Rice Eccles South next week), and it’s only right that we honor them the right way after such a dramatic turn-around.

Week in Review: Can the Utes be more dominant than they’ve been in the past two games? After a serious waxing of CSU by 24 points, they decided more of a statement needed to be made? The results? A 50-0 clobbering that had local media and zoobies nationwide crying about sportsmanship and running up the score? What a great thing to be accused of!
Some still doubted after the TCU and CSU game. And while it may be true that those teams haven’t proven to be great teams, can you really doubt that this team is playing at a top 25 level now? The Utes held Wyoming to 37 rushing yards. That’s right. 37. And while some whiners felt that Utah was running up the score, anybody who watched the entire game could tell you that it could have been much, much worse. Sure, Kyle decided to attempt an untimely and unwise onside kick in the third quarter, the truth of the matter is that all of the starters were taken out in the fourth quarter. Utah’s play calling in the fourth quarter was extremely conservative. I’m not sure why the local media decided to give BYU a pass when they left their starters in the entire game against Eastern Washington, but so be it.
What did I take from it? I’m giddy. Coach Whittingham showed that he does have a killer instinct. Enough of a killer instinct that the rest of the conference is getting very, very, nervous. And it’s not just Kyle. This is a team which very much still wants to make a statement. They’ve won six straight in impressive fashion, and this team has now gone 10 straight quarters without giving up a touchdown. This is a pissed off team.

Who stood out? As predicted, Tate had another big game with an INT and two tackles for loss. Gabe Long was a monster on the D-line with three sacks, five tackles, and a forced fumble. Derek Richards was also money, with 86 receiving yards and over 100 return yards.

Here’s the picture of the game:




What to expect this week: New Mexico has had one of their best years in their recent history, as they squeaked out a win against CSU last week (27-24). And despite the poor showing in their past two, keep in mind that this is a very talented team. Offensively, they have the most impressive talent in the conference with Marcus Smith at WR (11th in the NCAA in rec. per game) and Rodney Ferguson leading the way (averaging over 100 ypg). On D, they continue to be aggressive like Rocky Long-coached teams always are.
The Lobos are sitting in the same place as the Utes – with two conference losses, hoping for a strong finish and some help from BYU’s opponents. They will come out with confidence, as they have ‘owned’ the Utes as of late (winning the last two, and with a record of 5-2 vs. Utah since 2000) and will likely be the most aggressive team Utah has played so far this year. In this game, with the Lobos great WRs, expect Utah to alternate blitzing and spying on Ferguson, and daring Porterie to throw to their top WRs in man coverage.

Fortunately, though their records look similar, Utah and New Mexico are going in two opposite directions. Utah is on a roll, and New Mexico is trying to find themselves. Look for the Utes to take advantage of their new identity as they continue on their Tour d’ Revenge.

Here's why:

1. Utah's defense. Utah's scoring D is now ranked 5th in the NCAA, and they are improving each week. As mentioned previously, they have not given up a TD in 10 straight quarters, and really haven’t given up a TD with a full-length drive since the Louisville game. And while the passing D is the obvious strength (8th in the NCAA, with passing efficiency D ranked at fourth), the rushing D has become a serious force to be reckoned with, as they are giving up just over 60 rushing ypg in the past four games. An interesting stat is that New Mexico scores under 20 points, they’re winning just 10% of those games, and when scoring under 30 points, they’re winning just 42% (most teams with winning records are over 50%. Utah is 55%). As long as Utah can hold them below their average (26 ppg), they’ll very likely to win.
Look for the D-ends (Kruger, Burnett, Puccinelli) to wreak havoc on Porterie in this game - which should cause some key turn-overs. They didn't respond well to TCU's end-pressure, and they'll have just as many problems with Utah's.

2. New Mexico's Defense. Even though New Mexico’s D is always aggressive. However, this is a team that needs a powerful offense in order to win, because they’re not particularly strong at keeping opponents from scoring (they give up just under 22 ppg – 5th in the MWC). They have the most difficulty defending the pass – where they rank next-to-last in the MWC (212 ypg). Brian starting throwing the long ball last week, and while the touch wasn’t quite there yet, the arm strength was. Expect him to take advantage of the Lobos’ safeties playing in the box to stop Mack, and connect on a few long passes to his receivers. If they plan to stop Mack between the tackles, look for the Lobos to be soft around the ends, and look for Utah to go to this often. Based on what we’ve seen from the Lobos this season, I expect Utah to, at the very least, score their season average on the Lobos (26.8 ppg). And as I’ve said before, look for how they start. Utah is 6-2 this year when they score first. And when Utah scores at least 20 points (UNM gives up nearly 22 ppg), they win 82% of their games. Expect a huge game from BJ. He's had this game circled on his calendar since they tore his ACL two years ago.

3. The revenge factor. The New Mexico game last year was a low point for the Utes. They had a 24-3 lead, only to give up 24 unanswered points. The Utes want to redeem themselves, and they’ve had success this season in their revenge games (UCLA, Wyoming) this season.
A Conference Championship? It seems highly unlikely, but look for the Cowboys to give the Cougars at the very least a good scare this weekend, as weather should give the Pokes some advantage. I personally didn’t see anything about the Cowboy to make me think that they’re capable of winning against BYU, but stranger things have happened. Let's just honor Cowboy Joe with our own one-finger salute to our least favorite Y colleague. Hopefully Cowboy Joe gets his players fired up for their embarrassment last week, and for last year’s melt down in Provo. The more likely scenario is that, after Utah knocks off the Y, the Cougs have a melt-down in sunny San Diego (think Hawaii 2001)!


My pick: Utah 31, New Mexico 16

Next week: Utah at Rice Eccles South (where BYU has beaten Utah just once in the past 16 years) @ 12:00 pm.

Utah vs. CSU Summary (Wyoming Preview)

UTAH UTES
VS
WYOMING COWBOYS

Date & Time: 1:30 PM MT, November 10, 2007
TV: CSTV
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Rice Eccles Stadium, SLC, UT
All-time series: Utah leads series 47-31-1
Last meeting: 2006, Wyoming 31-15

Tailgate: We'll be having some rootin', tootin' home- made Cowboy Chili. We'll have bread bowls, for those who want just chili, and we'll have hot dogs for those who want chili dogs. We'll be meeting at 11 am so that we can go to the Ute Walk, and then we'll get cooking. Please RSVP if you plan to come. We have people bringing chili, cheese, and sour cream. But we still need people to bring drinks, bread bowls, and some sort of desert. If you can't make it to the tailgate - that's fine. But everybody must go to the game on Saturday. We need a sold-out crowd that game. The Utes can win out, and you don't want to miss seeing a strong finish to a very memorable season.

Week in Review: Well, CSU was probably the best 1-6 team in the NCAA. That was probably a true statement by Coach Whittingham. But you can put a lipstick on a pig, and it's still a pig, and the truth is that CSU is now 1-8, and teams that are 1-8 are not good teams.
That being said, nobody should dismiss Utah's win in Fort Collins because it was a big win. Not only is it always a big deal to come out of Fort Collins with a "W" (Utah had only done it twice in fourteen years), but Utah won in a very convincing fashion - 27-3. And it wasn't just the score that was lopsided. Utah held CSU to zero touchdowns (they were averaging 24 ppg going into that game), they held them to 1-12 on third down conversions, and they held them to 135 rushing yards. Meanwhile, Utah put up 470 yards of offense and 330 yards of rushing yards. Yes, even though this Ram team is not the typical Sonny Lubick-type of Ram team, the way in which Utah won was very impressive, and should have made any Utah fan very optimistic about the remainder of Utah's season.

My top three highlights from the CSU game:
3. The first touchdown of the game. This was huge, because it was on the first drive of the game. Utah has scored on their first drive in three straight games (going back to Louisville). But not only that, it was a screen pass to a seldom-used Ray Stowers, who fought hard to get into the endzone. It was a foreshadowing of bigger things to come from Stowers - who ended up finishing the game with 123 rushing yards and 2 TDs.

2. A few of the defensive highlights: Steve's pick in the first half was a huge pick, because that was about the point where Sonny lost confidence in Hanie (they replaced him in the second half). But I also loved Fotu's sack - where he didn't tackle the QB. He brought him down by plowing over the O-lineman into Hanie. Impressive.

1. And my favorite highlight of the game didn't take place on the field. It took place in the stands at Hughes Stadium. In the fourth quarter, a drunk, obnoxious CSU fan, wearing a replica jersey, a joker hat, and giant green and yellow mardi gras beads starting yelling at Randy Lewis (the guy who does the U-T-A-H cheers at all of the games), and charged towards him to knock him off the wall. Suddenly, the guy gets leveled - wrapped up and tackled to the ground. By who? By Wynn Tate. After the game, the word had spread down to Chris Hill and Coach Whit. Even Coach Anderson got in on the action by telling Mr. Tate that he'd see if he could find an open scholarship next year to sign him - based on what he heard about the tackle. Classic moment that we'll be hearing about for years.

What to expect this week: Wyoming is now just playing to become bowl eligible. They've lost three conference games (and three games in a row), and they have no realistic shot at even a shared MWC title. But don't dismiss the desire to give the lovely town of Laramie a bowl eligible football team. Cowboy Joe's Wyoming squad will be prepared for this game, and they will be playing with everything they have, so don't expect them to keel over and die. The Cowboys may not look like a good team, if you base it off their past three games. But this is a team that beat a top 20 Virginia team at Virginia by three touchdowns - holding the Cavaliers to just a field goal in a 23-3 victory. Wyoming has the potential to play like the best team in the MWC. Their strengths are their defense. They actually have the #1 defense in the MWC this season (in terms of total yardage given up). In fact, they're sixth in the nation, giving up just 287 yards per game. That's very good. Fortunately, this season, Utah is just a better team than Wyoming. They are more athletic and, believe it or not, are much more consistent. At least since Brian Johnson has been back as the starter and they've found a reliable running game.

Here's why Utah will win this week:
1. Utah's defense. Utah's scoring D is ranked 13th in the NCAA, giving up just over 17 ppg. Utah has been playing much more aggressively on D. We're seeing aggressive and unpredictable play-calling - with blitz packages from every angle on the D and stunting at the line. This has caused confusion from every opposing team, and has led to the most sacks in the MWC in the past four games and the most turn-overs recovered in the MWC in the past four games. In addition, the Utes are giving up just over 74 rushing ypg in the past four games - as opposed to nearly 160 ypg in the first three games.
Just like the game plan vs. CSU, Utah should again stack the box and not let Wyoming's good tandem running backs beat them, and let Sween beat them through the air with as much pressure as possible constantly coming at him.

2. Wyoming's Offense. While Utah's D is good, it's should make for an even more productive day for the defense considering that they are not facing an offensive juggernaut. Wyoming is averaging just 349 ypg - which is last in the MWC. The Cowboys are also averaging only 21 points per game - which is second to last in the MWC. They do have two very talented backs, and that is why they're the third best rushing team in the MWC, but Utah's D should be able to contain them well enough. The key will be getting pressure on Sween to force him into making stupid mistakes - which he has been very prone to do. He has been replaced game-time in two different games, so even the coaches are lacking confidence in him. And with 12 INTs thrown so far this year, Utah should have some luck in getting one or tow this game.

3. Whit's proven ability to prepare. Whittingham is 2-0 when coming off byes. However, if you include bowl games - which are pretty much four consecutive bye weeks - he's 4-0 as a head coach. And the numbers don't tell the whole story. Even as a Defensive Coordinator, Kyle Whittingham was always known for putting together a very thorough game plan when he had time to prepare. This bye week will help the Utes - not only to help give time to some dinged-up players (like Brian Johnson's shoulder, Freddy Brown's concussion, Braden Godfrey's back, Mack's ankle), but also to give Kyle an extra week to put together a solid plan. Last year was an embarassment to Kyle and his coaching staff, and he will want to make a statement from the beginning. Look for a very strong start for the Utes.

A Conference Championship? It seemed like an impossible thought just a few weeks ago. But the Utes have a very good shot at sharing a MWC title this year. To help the Utes, we need TCU to pound the little kitties down south on Thursday night. And even though I hope for a BYU defeat every week, I actually think that TCU is the team to give us what we all want. This TCU team is now playing like the team everybody thought they'd be pre-season. Tommy Blake is back, and he has brought some energy back to the defense. Not only did they beat the league's top-scoring offense on Saturday, but they shut them out 37-0. And not only did they shut them out, but they held them to 28 rushing yards and 78 passing yards for the entire game. They killed them. TCU has the athletes to give BYU fits, as long as they don't commit stupid turn-overs. Look for the Horned Frogs to get to Hall often and force a few fumbles. If we're lucky, maybe we can see this QB cry after the game. Go Horned Frogs!
My pick: Utah 27, Wyoming 13


Next week: New Mexico at Utah @ 3:30 pm.

Utah at TCU Recap (Utah at CSU Preview)

UTAH UTES

AT

Colorado State Rams

Date & Time: 3:30 PM MT, Saturday, October 27, 2007
TV: Mtn. (??)
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium, Fort Collins, CO
All-time series: Utah leads series 51-22-1 (sounds very similar to the Utah/BYU series, doesn’t it?)
Last meeting: 2006, Utah 35-22

Tailgate: Grill up some Ram Chops on your own. But make it a longer get together so you can tune in to Game 3 of the World Series right after the game. And if you’re a die-hard sports fan, then drive to the CSU game on Saturday, hit Game 4 of the World Series in Denver on Sunday, and stay the night to hit Monday Night Football on Monday.

Week in Review: So, the light turned green again on Thursday, and the ‘good’ Utes showed up for the fourth straight game. To the average football fan – the one perusing the satellite during the commercial break from the baseball game or the South Florida game who happened to stumble across the Versus network – Thursday’s game probably didn’t seem to be very impressive. But as Utah fans, we should be thrilled. Not only did Coach Whittingham win his fourth straight (longest in his career), but it propelled the Utes to .500 in the MWC and put them within two wins (meaning, they have to just go .500 for the rest of their schedule) to hit a bowl game, and maybe, just maybe – if they’re real lucky, a slice of the MWC title. Who would have thunk that would be possible a month ago?? But the Utes have rebounded nicely.

But as for the actual break-down of this game, the best thing to do is just read my preview. As predicted, the Utes forced Dalton to throw by containing the running game, and they did so very impressively. For some strange reason, TCU gave up quickly on the running game, only rushing 21 times. But kudos to Gary Anderson, as he did a brilliant job of preparing for what TCU was going to do, and the D gave so many looks – bringing the house on one play, and only rushing two the next play. The confusion led to two big sacks and FOUR interceptions (it would have been seven INTs, save some better hands and some better eyes by the refs). Tate had a monster day statistically (12 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT (should have been two)) and non-statistically (he was forced to play man to man on many downs, and did a great job of shutting down his opponent). In the end, Dalton couldn’t get anything going, and he finished with just 150 yards passing and 40% completion ratio. Utah’s defense was as prepared and as dominant as we’ve seen them this year. Frankly, if special teams were coached semi-decently, Utah would have given up just seven points in that game.

On offense, Utah started very strong, driving on the ground and in the air, and (believe it or not) finishing with a punch-in from the ONE YARD LINE (seriously!). But the momentum was lost after two horrible special teams plays – first the blocked punt by a player who has blocked four on the year (why didn’t we scheme for him?) and the next kick-off, the coverage was pathetic. So two quick scores within 1:30 let TCU back into it, and made the Utes go much more conservative offensively. But that conservative play would have changed the outcome at UNLV. They stuck to the run, and gave Mack another 100 yard game, and BJ made great decisions. Sure, it was too conservative for my own liking in the second half, but a win is a win is a win. And that was the type of game that Utah would have found a way to lose last season.


My prediction was 26-20, and the final score was 27-20. Why did I say 26? Not sure. But at least if you would have listened to me, you’d be a little richer right now.

What to expect this week: Coach Whit has already pulled out the old cliché – “this CSU team is the best 1-6 team in the nation.” Sure, it’s probably a true statement. But isn’t that kind of like me bragging about being the best athlete in my Thursday night Dungeons and Dragons group? It’s really not saying a whole lot.


But we know what the coach means. CSU cannot be taken lightly. Sure, they had lost 13 in a row, before their big win last week. But this is a CSU team who lost to Colorado by a field goal in OT – just two weeks before Colorado knocked-off Oklahoma. This is a team who lost to Cal by just six points. It’s never easy to beat CSU in CSU. Utah has only done it twice in fourteen years.

Why Utah should win Saturday:

1. CSU’s Defense. CSU has the worst rush defense in the MWC. Worse than SDSU, and in the bottom 15 in the entire NCAA. To give you an idea, they have given up an average of 212 yards per game and five yards per carry on the ground, and have given up 17 rushing touchdowns so far this season. With Mack and the offensive line on a serious roll, Utah can keep this on the ground, control the clock, and have a hay day. Expect Utah to rack up over 250 rushing yards, with Mack accounting for at least 150 of those yards.
Their passing D isn’t nearly as porous, but that’s likely only because teams don’t have to throw on them. They’re still letting opponents complete 60% of their pass attempts, surrendering over 200 yards per game in the air, while managing only five INTs (lowest in the MWC). Establishing the run early will set up a nice play-action, and I’m expecting great play from Godfrey, Richards, and Hernandez. Expect Johnson to throw for at least 200 yards in this one.

2. Utah's Pass Defense. Utah’s game plan on Saturday will be very similar to their game plan for TCU. They will scheme to contain the run, and dare Hanie to throw. Why? Because he has thrown more INTs (12) than TDs this season. They do have a long-ball WR threat in Damon Morton – who is averaging 22 yards per catch and has five TDs. But the Utes should feel confident about putting a speedster like McCain or long-arms Smith on him.
What Utah does not want to give up is the big run play and CSU has a very formidable 1-2 punch in Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell. Johnson had a 45 run against UNLV on Saturday, and he’s averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
Look for Gabe Long and Steve Tate at being instrumental in stopping the run, and forcing Hanie to throw. Then, look for at least two INTs for the Utes.

The Magic Number: Since 2001, Utah is 33-5 (87%) when scoring 30 points or more. CSU is averaging 31.3 points given up per game. The only teams that haven’t scored 30 on them have been SDSU and TCU (and even they came very, very close).

My pick: Utah 31, CSU 17

Next week:
Bye.