UTAH UTES
VS
NEW MEXICO LOBOS
VS
NEW MEXICO LOBOS
Date & Time: 3:30 PM MT, November 17, 2007
TV: The Mystery Channel (Mtn)
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Rice Eccles Stadium, SLC, UT
All-time series: Utah leads series 29-17-2
Last meeting: 2006, New Mexico 34-31
Tailgate: We'll be meeting at 1 pm for the Ute Walk. Then we’ll be having some catered grub, so I will need you to RSVP. I guarantee some good grub – but I’ll only order enough for those who RSVP. Just like last week, everybody must go to the game on Saturday. We need a sold-out crowd. This is the final home game for the seniors (unless you count the game at Rice Eccles South next week), and it’s only right that we honor them the right way after such a dramatic turn-around.
Week in Review: Can the Utes be more dominant than they’ve been in the past two games? After a serious waxing of CSU by 24 points, they decided more of a statement needed to be made? The results? A 50-0 clobbering that had local media and zoobies nationwide crying about sportsmanship and running up the score? What a great thing to be accused of!
Some still doubted after the TCU and CSU game. And while it may be true that those teams haven’t proven to be great teams, can you really doubt that this team is playing at a top 25 level now? The Utes held Wyoming to 37 rushing yards. That’s right. 37. And while some whiners felt that Utah was running up the score, anybody who watched the entire game could tell you that it could have been much, much worse. Sure, Kyle decided to attempt an untimely and unwise onside kick in the third quarter, the truth of the matter is that all of the starters were taken out in the fourth quarter. Utah’s play calling in the fourth quarter was extremely conservative. I’m not sure why the local media decided to give BYU a pass when they left their starters in the entire game against Eastern Washington, but so be it.
What did I take from it? I’m giddy. Coach Whittingham showed that he does have a killer instinct. Enough of a killer instinct that the rest of the conference is getting very, very, nervous. And it’s not just Kyle. This is a team which very much still wants to make a statement. They’ve won six straight in impressive fashion, and this team has now gone 10 straight quarters without giving up a touchdown. This is a pissed off team.
Who stood out? As predicted, Tate had another big game with an INT and two tackles for loss. Gabe Long was a monster on the D-line with three sacks, five tackles, and a forced fumble. Derek Richards was also money, with 86 receiving yards and over 100 return yards.
Here’s the picture of the game:
What to expect this week: New Mexico has had one of their best years in their recent history, as they squeaked out a win against CSU last week (27-24). And despite the poor showing in their past two, keep in mind that this is a very talented team. Offensively, they have the most impressive talent in the conference with Marcus Smith at WR (11th in the NCAA in rec. per game) and Rodney Ferguson leading the way (averaging over 100 ypg). On D, they continue to be aggressive like Rocky Long-coached teams always are.
The Lobos are sitting in the same place as the Utes – with two conference losses, hoping for a strong finish and some help from BYU’s opponents. They will come out with confidence, as they have ‘owned’ the Utes as of late (winning the last two, and with a record of 5-2 vs. Utah since 2000) and will likely be the most aggressive team Utah has played so far this year. In this game, with the Lobos great WRs, expect Utah to alternate blitzing and spying on Ferguson, and daring Porterie to throw to their top WRs in man coverage.
Fortunately, though their records look similar, Utah and New Mexico are going in two opposite directions. Utah is on a roll, and New Mexico is trying to find themselves. Look for the Utes to take advantage of their new identity as they continue on their Tour d’ Revenge.
Here's why:
1. Utah's defense. Utah's scoring D is now ranked 5th in the NCAA, and they are improving each week. As mentioned previously, they have not given up a TD in 10 straight quarters, and really haven’t given up a TD with a full-length drive since the Louisville game. And while the passing D is the obvious strength (8th in the NCAA, with passing efficiency D ranked at fourth), the rushing D has become a serious force to be reckoned with, as they are giving up just over 60 rushing ypg in the past four games. An interesting stat is that New Mexico scores under 20 points, they’re winning just 10% of those games, and when scoring under 30 points, they’re winning just 42% (most teams with winning records are over 50%. Utah is 55%). As long as Utah can hold them below their average (26 ppg), they’ll very likely to win.
Look for the D-ends (Kruger, Burnett, Puccinelli) to wreak havoc on Porterie in this game - which should cause some key turn-overs. They didn't respond well to TCU's end-pressure, and they'll have just as many problems with Utah's.
2. New Mexico's Defense. Even though New Mexico’s D is always aggressive. However, this is a team that needs a powerful offense in order to win, because they’re not particularly strong at keeping opponents from scoring (they give up just under 22 ppg – 5th in the MWC). They have the most difficulty defending the pass – where they rank next-to-last in the MWC (212 ypg). Brian starting throwing the long ball last week, and while the touch wasn’t quite there yet, the arm strength was. Expect him to take advantage of the Lobos’ safeties playing in the box to stop Mack, and connect on a few long passes to his receivers. If they plan to stop Mack between the tackles, look for the Lobos to be soft around the ends, and look for Utah to go to this often. Based on what we’ve seen from the Lobos this season, I expect Utah to, at the very least, score their season average on the Lobos (26.8 ppg). And as I’ve said before, look for how they start. Utah is 6-2 this year when they score first. And when Utah scores at least 20 points (UNM gives up nearly 22 ppg), they win 82% of their games. Expect a huge game from BJ. He's had this game circled on his calendar since they tore his ACL two years ago.
3. The revenge factor. The New Mexico game last year was a low point for the Utes. They had a 24-3 lead, only to give up 24 unanswered points. The Utes want to redeem themselves, and they’ve had success this season in their revenge games (UCLA, Wyoming) this season.
A Conference Championship? It seems highly unlikely, but look for the Cowboys to give the Cougars at the very least a good scare this weekend, as weather should give the Pokes some advantage. I personally didn’t see anything about the Cowboy to make me think that they’re capable of winning against BYU, but stranger things have happened. Let's just honor Cowboy Joe with our own one-finger salute to our least favorite Y colleague. Hopefully Cowboy Joe gets his players fired up for their embarrassment last week, and for last year’s melt down in Provo. The more likely scenario is that, after Utah knocks off the Y, the Cougs have a melt-down in sunny San Diego (think Hawaii 2001)!
My pick: Utah 31, New Mexico 16
Tailgate: We'll be meeting at 1 pm for the Ute Walk. Then we’ll be having some catered grub, so I will need you to RSVP. I guarantee some good grub – but I’ll only order enough for those who RSVP. Just like last week, everybody must go to the game on Saturday. We need a sold-out crowd. This is the final home game for the seniors (unless you count the game at Rice Eccles South next week), and it’s only right that we honor them the right way after such a dramatic turn-around.
Week in Review: Can the Utes be more dominant than they’ve been in the past two games? After a serious waxing of CSU by 24 points, they decided more of a statement needed to be made? The results? A 50-0 clobbering that had local media and zoobies nationwide crying about sportsmanship and running up the score? What a great thing to be accused of!
Some still doubted after the TCU and CSU game. And while it may be true that those teams haven’t proven to be great teams, can you really doubt that this team is playing at a top 25 level now? The Utes held Wyoming to 37 rushing yards. That’s right. 37. And while some whiners felt that Utah was running up the score, anybody who watched the entire game could tell you that it could have been much, much worse. Sure, Kyle decided to attempt an untimely and unwise onside kick in the third quarter, the truth of the matter is that all of the starters were taken out in the fourth quarter. Utah’s play calling in the fourth quarter was extremely conservative. I’m not sure why the local media decided to give BYU a pass when they left their starters in the entire game against Eastern Washington, but so be it.
What did I take from it? I’m giddy. Coach Whittingham showed that he does have a killer instinct. Enough of a killer instinct that the rest of the conference is getting very, very, nervous. And it’s not just Kyle. This is a team which very much still wants to make a statement. They’ve won six straight in impressive fashion, and this team has now gone 10 straight quarters without giving up a touchdown. This is a pissed off team.
Who stood out? As predicted, Tate had another big game with an INT and two tackles for loss. Gabe Long was a monster on the D-line with three sacks, five tackles, and a forced fumble. Derek Richards was also money, with 86 receiving yards and over 100 return yards.
Here’s the picture of the game:
What to expect this week: New Mexico has had one of their best years in their recent history, as they squeaked out a win against CSU last week (27-24). And despite the poor showing in their past two, keep in mind that this is a very talented team. Offensively, they have the most impressive talent in the conference with Marcus Smith at WR (11th in the NCAA in rec. per game) and Rodney Ferguson leading the way (averaging over 100 ypg). On D, they continue to be aggressive like Rocky Long-coached teams always are.
The Lobos are sitting in the same place as the Utes – with two conference losses, hoping for a strong finish and some help from BYU’s opponents. They will come out with confidence, as they have ‘owned’ the Utes as of late (winning the last two, and with a record of 5-2 vs. Utah since 2000) and will likely be the most aggressive team Utah has played so far this year. In this game, with the Lobos great WRs, expect Utah to alternate blitzing and spying on Ferguson, and daring Porterie to throw to their top WRs in man coverage.
Fortunately, though their records look similar, Utah and New Mexico are going in two opposite directions. Utah is on a roll, and New Mexico is trying to find themselves. Look for the Utes to take advantage of their new identity as they continue on their Tour d’ Revenge.
Here's why:
1. Utah's defense. Utah's scoring D is now ranked 5th in the NCAA, and they are improving each week. As mentioned previously, they have not given up a TD in 10 straight quarters, and really haven’t given up a TD with a full-length drive since the Louisville game. And while the passing D is the obvious strength (8th in the NCAA, with passing efficiency D ranked at fourth), the rushing D has become a serious force to be reckoned with, as they are giving up just over 60 rushing ypg in the past four games. An interesting stat is that New Mexico scores under 20 points, they’re winning just 10% of those games, and when scoring under 30 points, they’re winning just 42% (most teams with winning records are over 50%. Utah is 55%). As long as Utah can hold them below their average (26 ppg), they’ll very likely to win.
Look for the D-ends (Kruger, Burnett, Puccinelli) to wreak havoc on Porterie in this game - which should cause some key turn-overs. They didn't respond well to TCU's end-pressure, and they'll have just as many problems with Utah's.
2. New Mexico's Defense. Even though New Mexico’s D is always aggressive. However, this is a team that needs a powerful offense in order to win, because they’re not particularly strong at keeping opponents from scoring (they give up just under 22 ppg – 5th in the MWC). They have the most difficulty defending the pass – where they rank next-to-last in the MWC (212 ypg). Brian starting throwing the long ball last week, and while the touch wasn’t quite there yet, the arm strength was. Expect him to take advantage of the Lobos’ safeties playing in the box to stop Mack, and connect on a few long passes to his receivers. If they plan to stop Mack between the tackles, look for the Lobos to be soft around the ends, and look for Utah to go to this often. Based on what we’ve seen from the Lobos this season, I expect Utah to, at the very least, score their season average on the Lobos (26.8 ppg). And as I’ve said before, look for how they start. Utah is 6-2 this year when they score first. And when Utah scores at least 20 points (UNM gives up nearly 22 ppg), they win 82% of their games. Expect a huge game from BJ. He's had this game circled on his calendar since they tore his ACL two years ago.
3. The revenge factor. The New Mexico game last year was a low point for the Utes. They had a 24-3 lead, only to give up 24 unanswered points. The Utes want to redeem themselves, and they’ve had success this season in their revenge games (UCLA, Wyoming) this season.
A Conference Championship? It seems highly unlikely, but look for the Cowboys to give the Cougars at the very least a good scare this weekend, as weather should give the Pokes some advantage. I personally didn’t see anything about the Cowboy to make me think that they’re capable of winning against BYU, but stranger things have happened. Let's just honor Cowboy Joe with our own one-finger salute to our least favorite Y colleague. Hopefully Cowboy Joe gets his players fired up for their embarrassment last week, and for last year’s melt down in Provo. The more likely scenario is that, after Utah knocks off the Y, the Cougs have a melt-down in sunny San Diego (think Hawaii 2001)!
My pick: Utah 31, New Mexico 16
Next week: Utah at Rice Eccles South (where BYU has beaten Utah just once in the past 16 years) @ 12:00 pm.
No comments:
Post a Comment