Utah vs. New Mexico Recap (BYU Preview)

Utah
at
(25) BYU

Date & Time: 12:00 PM MT, November 24, 2007
TV: CSTV, Versus, MTN
Radio: Kall 700, KSL 1160
Location: Rice Eccles South Stadium (AKA Lavell Edwards Stadium), Provo, UT
All-time series: Utah leads series 53-32-4
Last meeting: I don't remember how it ended.

Tailgate: The Crimson Club is sponsoring a "Party in Provo" at Provo High School, beginning at 8 am. They will have plenty of food, and the cost is $15 per person. So far, 650 Ute fans have pre-registered, so we're hoping to pop the bubble.

Week in Review: If you would have told me that we'd beat New Mexico by 18 points, I'd take that in a heart beat. However, as funny as it sounds, it was a scary game, and the Utes didn't look nearly as crisp (on offense) as they had in their previous three games. But credit New Mexico for the 'scrappy' game. They always seem to bring their best game against the Utes, and always give Utah fits. Even in 2004 the Fiesta Bowl year, the New Mexico game was the one game where the offense struggled the most. Such was the case this past Saturday, and even though his stats look alright (16-27), he missed quite a few passes, and the ball didn't look sharp. But before you look into that too much, I would credit the aggressive play of New Mexico for BJ's struggles.

Meanwhile, Utah's D was as good as it has been during the winning streak. Utah's D completely suffocated the Lobos - forcing four turnovers, four sacks, and allowing just 85 rushing yards, and just one touchdown on a ten-yard field.

Who stood out? Tate had 10 tackles, Robert Johnson played fantastic - forcing another fumble, while Paul Krueger had a 1.5 sacks, one of which gave Koa Misi the chance to return it for a touchdown.


What to expect this week: This game has all of the make-up of being another classic in the history of this heated rivalry - the league's top defense against the league's top offense. Utah is on a roll - outscoring their last three opponents 105-13. They're playing like they could beat anybody in the country right now. Their scoring D is fifth in the NCAA (15.5 ppg), but that still doesn't tell the whole story, as they are averaging just 8 points per game in their last five. Utah's pass D is as good as it gets - their pass efficiency D is ranked 3rd in the NCAA (ahead of USC, and behind just LSU and Ohio State). Meanwhile, BYU is the antithesis, as they are eighth in the nation in passing yards per game, and they are first in the conference in pass efficiency.

And on the other side of the ball, Utah is third in the MWC in scoring offense and second in the MWC in rushing offense (only behind Air Force) while BYU's rushing D is 10th in the NCAA (first in MWC).

Again, something is going to have to give.

For the sake of not giving away any game preparation secrets, I'm going to break this game down in a much more simplified way: comparing it to last year. BYU's offense was much better last year than this year (36.8 ppg vs. 30.8 ppg), and their D was better (15.3 ppg vs 18.6 ppg).
Meanwhile, the 2007 Utah team is much better than last year's team. Their offense has been better, with a rushing attack that didn't exist last year. And their defense is much better (20.2 ppg vs. 15.5 ppg) and their passing D is much better (220 ypg surrendered vs. 180 ypg and 59.3% vs. 51%). And last year, Utah had a great game plan - to play physical, jam the line and blitz aggressively. Unfortunately, last year, they didn't begin implementing this game plan until they were down 14-0 in the second quarter. When they began playing aggressively on D, they dominated the second and third quarters, ultimately taking the lead until they decided to go prevent on the last play. But, the point is, last year, BYU was much better than they are this year, and they had to come from behind to beat the Utes.

This Utah team will not let BYU throw for more than 250 yards, and they will not let BYU beat them on the ground. If Utah comes out playing the same level of intensity on D as they have the last few games, and if they scheme well for Unga, then I really do not see BYU scoring more than two touchdowns.


Here are the keys:

1. Utah's defense. Utah's scoring D is ranked 5th in the NCAA, and they are improving each week. They have now given up just one TD in the past 14 quarters - and in the past four games, they have not given up a touchdown drive more than 50 yards. The key is on the front line. This front line will be largely outmanned against BYU's line, who can pass as the first season of the "Biggest Loser". But these defensive linemen are faster than any BYU will have faced. Between Krueger, Burnett, Misi, and Long, these guys can and should get past BYU's big, but slow, O-line. I expect at least three sacks on Hall, with at least one of those creating a turnover. Hall has been very prone to turn the ball over (-6, 8th in the MWC), and Utah has been very opportunistic with TOs this year (+10, 1st in MWC).
The key in this game will be with the safeties and linebackers, as it will be up to them to prevent a rushing attack. Last year, Tate held Curtis Brown to 45 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards - well below his average. Look for the same type of shut-down performance with Unga this year. The safeties, however, will have to account for 6'5" Dennis Pitta, as well as Unga, and the LBs will have to stay on their assignments. Look for Nai Fotu to have a big impact on this game.

2. Utah's offense. Brian Johnson is going to come out and test this BYU passing D. Not only is the BYU secondary vulnerable healthy (as seen vs. Tulsa), but they are currently NOT healthy, and they need to be exploited. BJ didn't have a great game against UNM, but look for him to go long to pick on the converted cornerback, Ben Criddle, trying to anchor the BYU D. Wyoming, as pathetic as Sween looked vs. Utah, threw for 277 yards on BYU last week. The BYU secondary was called for PI a few times in that game, where they held when it was apparent they were getting beat. I'm looking for Braden Godfrey, Derek Richards, and Marquis Wilson to be long ball targets and creating some very big plays on Saturday.
Mack will have a very hard time hitting 100 yards on Saturday, but I do see the OL and Mack having a chip on their shoulders, and giving it all they have. I expect Mack to have about 75 yards rushing on Saturday.
Look for Brian's break-out game on Saturday. It may not be a huge game statistically for him, but he will manage the game well, keeping sustained drives and not allowing any TOs.

Stat of the week: Here's a stat for you: since 2000, when BYU fails to score 20 points, they are 1-22. In fact, if they score less than 30 points, they are just .300. If Utah can play the same type of D that they did last year in the 2nd and 3rd quarter (and like they have for most of this season), and not allow any Y defensive or special teams TDs, then Utah will win. It's that simple
Here's another quick fact: BYU still sucks.


My pick: Utah 27, Team Down South 17

Next game: Utah in San Diego vs. Navy (NCAA's top rushing offense) on December 20th at the Poinsettia Bowl.