Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Utah vs. #11 UCLA

UTAH UTES

VS.

#11 UCLA BRUINS


Date & Time: 3:00 September 15th, 2007
TV: VERSUS TV
Radio: Kall 700 and Sirius Radio
Location: Salt Lake City , Utah
All-time series: UCLA leads 8-0
Last meeting: 2006, Utah lost 31-10

Tailgate: The tailgate was the best part of the game last Saturday. Gordon and Lauren won the wing-eating contest and the band came and hung out with us while Mark Robbins freaked with the "3rd quarter crazy dancing lady" (don't pretend you don't know who I'm talking about). But despite the fun, we did have a low turn-out. As I don't want to buy more than necessary, this week we'll have a BBQ, and everybody can bring their own Bruin meat. Please RSVP to let me know if you're coming. We'll be there for the Utah team walk-by at 12:30, and begin tailgating at 1 pm.


Week in Review:
Well, alrighty then. Things didn't get any better against the Air Force Falcons. In fact, they actually got worse. To add insult to injury- Utah added two more critical players to the IR - Brent Casteel tore his ACL in the first quarter, and Gabe Long - Utah's stud defensive lineman who showed ability to stop the run - went out in the 2nd series with a torn MCL.

Let's be fair. The fact is, Utah has had the type of bad luck that only Stephen King could imagine. Even teams like USC and LSU would be having a hard time adjusting if they lost their top 4 offensive players and best defensive lineman within the first five quarters of the season. Sure, those teams might have the depth to be in decent shape still. But there is no doubt that even those teams would be struggling to immediately cope with those same circumstances. Mentally, that's tough for a team to recover from.

However, even with those injuries, Utah should have beat Air Force had they been able to accomplish a few simple things during the game:

1. If Tommy Grady could have eliminated his bad tendencies. Somebody (Ludwig) needs to teach Grady to not run straight to his right after his primary target is covered. Nothing good happens when he runs (except for, some might argue the part-scared, part-laughing, part-indigestion look I get on my face). It's that simple. Just stay in the pocket, my son, and don't panic. And while he did continue to stare straight at his intended receiver, and even though he did throw about five seconds too late on most passing plays, the problems on offense still weren't all his fault. I rarely saw the receivers break back to the ball on broken plays. I never saw the receivers block downfield, which could have helped the outside running game, or helped the YAC on some of the shorter routes. And the predictable (or in some cases, completely unpredictable and unexplainable) play-calling didn't help him much.

2. If they could have stopped - no, slowed - the running game. I mean, come on. With all due respect to our military, it's not like the Utes faced a one-two punch of Ladanian Tomlinson and Stephen Jackson. But our running D couldn't get a stop. To their credit, they did make a big stop, only to have the offense hand it back over five seconds later. But the Utes have got to find a new solution in the middle of the DL.

3. If they could have gotten the running game established. Why the problems running this season? Some have blamed the offensive coordinator. Some blame the position coach. Some blame the offensive line. Some blame the players. I say, take your pick on any given play. there's enough blame to go around. All I know is that, for some reason, 3rd and 4th downs with one yard to go, the Ute offense feels more comfortable doing end-arounds than running right at the D-linemen who have to be small enough to pilot planes. And the last play, Poston had the type of hole in front of him that had everything but a red carpet and a little man with a welcome sign - yet he chose instead to try and leap over a combined 3,000 lbs of beef-cake.

So, how were my predictions? Again, my analysis was spot on. I said that Utah didn't have to worry about the pass, but the the key was stopping the run. And on offense, I said, "they will need to put up at least 20 points. For Grady to be successful, he will need to make the adjustment of not looking at his primary receiver, and make a much bigger effort at throwing sooner."
So, I was right about the keys, but my prediction played out like a Gary Crowton hiring - it felt right at the time, but in the end, it was still wrong.

What to expect this week: Well, many expect to see a blow-out. Utah will have to play without five key starters, and they have to start Tommy Grady - whom UCLA loved seeing last year. On paper, having just seen Utah lose to Air Force at home, it seems very unlikely that the Utes can hang with the #11 team in the country.

With that said, don't go rushing to put money that the Bruins will cover the spread (12.5). I truly think that the Utes could give them a very good game. BYU made UCLA look vulnerable enough that Karl Dorrell had to keep repeating at his press conference that the UCLA offense isn't that bad. Ben Olson threw for just 126 yards against BYU. That's right. Just 126 yards against a defensive secondary made up of names like Kayle Buchanon, Ben Criddle, Colby Hodgekiss. And the Bruins racked up just 236 yards of total offense. If it weren't for two turn-overs, UCLA would be looking at this as a rebound game. My point? The Bruins offense is not that good.

The key on defense is to keep Bell and Markey in check - just like they did last year in Pasadena. If they can hold them to under 130 yards rushing, and if they can keep Ben Olson from getting into any sort of passing rhythm (keeping him below 200 yards passing), Utah has a real shot at pulling an upset. The only way that the Utes can do this, however, is the same way that the Y did - they must be aggressive on D. They need to get QB pressure from our D-line, they need to blitz unexpectedly, and contain the interior line.
It should be interesting to see some of the key changes that the coaches are making this week on defense: Starting Krueger instead of Burnett at DE, moving Newman from DE to DT (they need somebody there), and moving Tate from Free Safety to Strong Safety, and replacing Joe Dale (who has played quite well) with Robert Johnson at Free Safety. With the secondary apparently as athletic and acapble as it is, the D should use the linebackers much more aggressively up front, and use Tate to blitz much more often from the SS position (think Weddle '04).

On offense, it's the same keys as last week. Utah MUST try to establish a consistent running game. This means that they can't give up after a quarter. It also means that they need to mix it up - and not always run when they're under center. They cannot be as predictable as they were last year against UCLA, or as they have been thus far this year. Grady must play like he did on the last drive of the AIr Force game. I realize that the Falcons helped Grady look like a good QB on the last drive by being in a prevent D, but he stayed in the pocket and released his passes sooner, and good things happened. I really don't know what to expect on offense, but I do expect to see some trickery. There will be some players making their debut this week (and Dan, I don't think it will be Astle). Let's hope it's effective. To be in this game, Utah can't have any turn-overs, and must have more than 300 yards of offense.

My pick: Utah 27, UCLA 24 (cut me some slack. It's not like I'm trying to win money here. Plus, we have Louie!!)

Next week:
Utah vs. UNLV at Sam Boyd Stadium at 8 pm PT (9 PM MT) Saturday September 22nd
.

Utah vs. Air Force

UTAH UTES

VS.

AIR FORCE FALCONS


Date & Time: 4:00 September 8th, 2007
TV: MTN (not sure what this is?)
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Salt Lake City , Utah
All-time series: Air Force leads 13-10 (though Utah has won the last four in a row)
Last meeting: 2006, Utah won 17-14

Tailgate: Meeting at the tailgate lot at 1:00. We will be having wings, in recognition of Utah ’s opponent. Please RSVP if you plan to make it, and let us know what you plan to bring, if anything (no obligation).

Week in Review: Wow. If you could imagine the most disappointing results for the season-opener, it probably couldn’t have been much worse than what actually happened. The loss was less of a disappointment than the key injuries to perhaps the two most important players on Utah ’s offense: Matt Asiata and Brian Johnson. Those injuries caused the game to change dramatically. Utah seemed to have all the momentum in the first half until they gave up a 4th and 7 towards the end of the 2nd quarter. That set up an OSU touchdown. But it got much worse. Moments later, Brian Johnson separated his shoulder on an option carry, and Utah ’s ability to move the ball went out with Brian. The second half was miserable, with the Utes converting just two first downs in the second half – the defense couldn’t get a breather, and the OSU front four dominated and paved the way for Yvenson Bernard to run all over the Utes for 171 yards.

While my prediction of the score was pretty off – I think my analysis was right on. For Utah to win the game, they had to be productive on the ground. Had Utah been able to balance their attack and put up over 100 yards, I think it would have been reasonable for them to put up 30 points. When Brian was QB, he was on his way to a pass-efficiency of 160 – which is a very good game. The problem is that, after Asiata went down, Utah could not come close to establish a running game – netting a total of 18 rushing yards. Meanwhile, I predicted that Utah would have to hold OSU to under their average of 120 rushing yards – which seemed reasonable. But that was a tall order after Utah ’s offense took the night off when Brian left. The defense got worn down while playing against a very impressive Beaver offensive line. Bernard was a great running back – but I think most any running back in the NCAA could have had a great night behind that line.

For putting up close to their 2006 average in offensive production (362 average and 370 for the night), they scored right about you would have expected (26 points average and 24 points in the game). It’s obvious that the game would have been very different without those discouraging injuries. We wish Matt and Brian healthy recoveries.


What to expect this week: Who really knows?

Seriously, though, this one will be very interesting. Air Force comes in with a more balanced attack than they’ve had in their history. On Saturday’s game against South Carolina State , Air Force ran out of the I-formation, pro-set, and wish-bone formation. Shaun Carney passed for 174 yards, and the team had close to 500 yards of total offense en route to a 34-3 clobbering the Division I-AA team.

The Utes, however, are preparing hard for the traditional triple-option attack. The Falcons may have had luck throwing against this D-2 squad, but I don’t think that McCain and Sean Smith are terribly worried about the Air Force wide-outs as their passing D was definitely Utah ’s strong point in their opener. However, Air Force has always given Utah difficulties – even when they knew that they were coming in with one formation: the triple-option. Carney is a three-year starter, and is very dangerous on the ground. Utah ’s linebackers MUST come prepared to contain the run. For the Utes to do well, look for big games from Tate at safety as well as the speedier LBs (Sylvester and Jianonni), as their play will be critical for Utah to contain the run.


On offense, Utah needs to make adjustments. Grady is not an spread-option quarterback, and you can’t force a square peg into a round hole. Expect Utah to have more plays under center for Grady, with even some two-back formations. The Utes have decided not to redshirt Darrell Mack, and you can expect to see all three RBs getting carries this Saturday. While the Ute “6-pack” of WRs were non-existent in their opener, if Utah wants to win this game, they will need to put up at least 20 points, and most of their points should come through the air. For Grady to be successful, he will need to make the adjustment of not looking at his primary receiver, and make a much bigger effort at throwing sooner. In other words, he will need to be much better in every way than he was last week. Frankly, for Utah to win, they will need to exploit the small and slower secondary of the Falcons, and I expect Godfrey and Hernandez to be the main targets again – as they are the most reliable WRs at getting open.


My pick: Utah 24, Air Force 14


Next week:
UCLA Bruins vs. Utah at Rice Eccles Stadium at 3 pm, Saturday September 15th.
Tailgating in the lot at 12 pm.

Utah at Oregon State

AT

Date & Time: 6:00 August 30th, 2007
TV: FOX Sports Utah
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Corvallis, Oregon
All-time series: Oregon State leads 4-8-1
Last meeting: 1992 (Utah 42, OSU 9

Tailgate: Road game - no tailgate planned in SLC.

Even though the Club Tate kick-off tailgate is still more than a week away, the Utes season will get going early this Thursday in Corvalis.

Quick question: Which PAC-10 program has won the most bowl games this decade? Thought USC? Wrong. Try Oregon State.

The expectations have been very high the past several years in Corvalis, beginning with Erickson resurrecting the program and continuing with Mike Riley taking over. But in 2006, the program finally lived up to those high expectations. The Beavers finished 2nd in the PAC-10 with 10 wins, and even beat powerhouse USC.

So, you say, that was 2006. Well, the problem for the Utes is that Oregon State has nearly everyone back from 2006. 18 returning starters, to be specfic. So the season-opening trip to Corvallis will be anything but an easy task for the Utes. In fact, this first game could possibly be the best measuring stick for Utah fans. If the Utes can leave Corvalis with a win, not only will it raise some serious eyebrows, but it will provide them with a ton of confidence and momentum as they prepare for the rest of their brutal schedule.

What to expect: Oregon State's offense brings a very balanced attack. They bring arguably one of the best RBs in the PAC-10 in Yvenson Bernard (coming off his second straight 1,000 yard season), and one of the best WRs in Sammy Stroughter (the pre-season All-American will likely not play Thursday). But when asked what element of the offense makes him the most nervous, Gary Anderson didn't hesitate to respond that the Beavers offensive line will be the biggest challenge. Four of five of the OL are returning starters, so there is little doubt that the Beavers will try to rely primarily on their running game. This alone won't be enough to beat the Utes. The key for the Beavers will be to establish a successful balanced attack, which requires the dual QB system to find some sort of rhythm. Without Stroughter (possibly), and with a very athletic Utah secondary, this could prove to be difficult. If the Utah pass rush can keep pressure on the inexperienced QBs, it will make it very tough for the Beavers to put up the amount of points that they'll need to beat a potentially powerful Utah offense. Supposing that the pass D will be the strength, the key for Utah will be for the LBs and young interior DL to keep the OSU running game in check. If they can hold OSU to under their 2006 team average of 119 yards rushing , expect the Beavers to score no more than 20 points against the 'bend, but not break' Utah D.

Offensively for the Utes, the question every fan is dying to have answered is how Utah's running game will be. With all due respect to Weddle and Utah's runningbacks, the best RB on the team CAN'T be the cornerback again. On paper, it seems that the running game will take care of itself based purely on how strong the passing game can be, and based on the threat of a mobile Brian Johnson. The Utes need to keep the offense balanced and BJ indicated that the magic number will be 1,500. If the Utes can average 125 yards per game (1,500 on the season), then they'll be in good shape. The key will be on the talented but young OL, who have proven to provide solid pass protection, but need to provide solid run blocking against the Beavers. Based on the suspect OSU passing D, I think Utah will get plenty of production in the air. The question is whether or not Utah can run. If the Utes can get over 125 yards on the ground, expect at least 30 points on the scoreboard for the Utes.

My pick: Utah 31, OSU 20

Next week:

Air Force Falcons at Rice Eccles Stadium at 4 pm.

Tailgating in the lot at 1 pm.

Menu: The best wings you'll ever have.