ESPN Break-down of Poinsettia Bowl

Poinsettia Bowl Preview

Utah vs. Navy


Date & Time: 7 PM MT, December 22, 2007
TV: ESPN
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Qualcomm Stadium, San DIego, California
All-time series: First meeting


The scoop: Utah is playing in its fifth straight bowl game, hoping to get its seventh consecutive bowl win. Currently, their six bowl game win streak is the second-longest in the nation, only behind Boston College (with seven). Their streak includes the Vegas Bowl ('99), the Vegas Bowl ('01), Liberty Bowl ('03), Fiesta Bowl ('04), the Emerald Bowl ('05), and the Armed Forces Bowl ('06).

Bowl games are something that Kyle Whittingham and the Utes players and fans are now very accustomed to. And while the crowd is certain to be more of an 'away' game than a 'home' game, there will be a large Ute crowd at the game - likely around 10,000 - 12,000.
There are a ton of Navy fans, and they are expecting this crowd to be a record for this bowl game - with 47,500 fans planned to be in attendance.

Tonight at the pep rally, Coach Whittingham had all of the seniors speak, as well as Brian Johnson and Louie Sakoda.
Kyle Guenther gave the crowd a good laugh when he said that he was glad to play Navy and hopes to kill them because he "hate(s) amphibious people".

The Navy players and Utah players had some events together. They met with Lou Holtz today, who spoke to them at a lunch onboard a ship in the harbor. I'm not sure about everything that was said by Lou Holtz, but I did overhear him saying "Thith ith very exthiting"



The Navy players commented that they really don't consider Army as their most hated rival. They reserve this hatred for Air Force. This has become the game that they circle on their schedule each year, and there is no love-loss between those two programs. The Navy media has shown a keen interest in Utah's returned missionaries, and they took special note of Steve, who is married with a child. The cadets aren't allowed to be married while enrolled. The Baltimore Sun published an article recently, mostly about Steve: (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/college/football/bal-sp.navy18dec18,0,3564590.story).

Key Match-up: Throughout the entire game, you'll hear the match-up between one of the top defenses in the NCAA (Utah ranks 2nd in scoring D and 2nd in passing D) against one of the most potent offenses in the NCAA (Navy is the top rushing O and top 5 in scoring). As such, most expect that the key match-up will be how Utah adjusts to Navy's top-ranked rushing offense. ESPN Insider broke down the key match-up in the following manner:

Navy QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada vs. Utah SS Steve Tate
Tate is a tough run stopper and a playmaker in coverage, but he can be overaggressive, so he gets caught out of position at times. If he doesn't stay disciplined in this game, it will open the door for Kaheaku-Enhada to provide the Navy offense with big plays. Kaheaku-Enhada is fast enough to go the distance when he gets a seam and Tate will be one of the last lines of defense when he carries the ball. As a result, Tate must take sound pursuit angles and play under control when he sees Kaheaku-Enhada tuck the ball and run. He can't afford any breakdowns in coverage either. Though he lacks elite arm strength, Kaheaku-Enhada puts adequate velocity and decent touch on his downfield passes. He's more than capable of finding a receiver over the middle when Tate bites on play action. On the other hand, Kaheaku-Enhada must be willing to throw the ball away or check to another receiver when Tate doesn't buy the play fake. Tate reads opposing quarterbacks' eyes and rarely drops passes he should catch.


Good break-down. But why do I giggle when I think about Lou Holtz trying to read that breakdown?

What to expect this week:
Offense: While I do believe that the Navy QB vs. Utah S matchup will be a huge factor in the game, I actually think that the key will be Utah's offense. Why? I think that Navy will gain its fair share of yards, but I think Utah's defensive scheme will keep them from the big plays, and keep them out of the endzone most of the day. The real question is whether Utah's offense will come out prepared - like they didn't do vs. BYU. If Utah can hold Navy under 20 points (they're averaging nearly 44 on the season), which they should, then Utah needs at least 20 points to win. Mack will keep them honest, and I expect him to have at least 25 carries and 100 yards, and he'll keep the clock running. But if Utah wants to beat Navy, they have to do what they didn't do vs. BYU. They must exploit a weak passing D. Navy's passing D is one of the worst in the NCAA. They gave up 650 passing yards to North Texas. They gave up 52 points and over 550 yards to Delaware. I just hope that Andy Ludwig looked at these stats and comes in with a solid game plan. For Utah to win soundly, Brian Johnson must come out aggressive - like he did vs. Louisville. They will have success if they throw the long ball to Richards and Wilson, and if they use Godfrey in such a way where he can take advantage of his size (think post patterns). The 'triple and double reverse' plays should be put away - though I think Utah will find success using Brooks and Wesson on sweeps to the outside. The key is to maintain ball control. Utah must convert at least 40% on 3rd down conversions, because Navy is converting on nearly 50% of theirs.

Defense: Many are saying that Utah struggles with the option. However, I think that this is an oversimplification. When Utah prepares for the option, they actually have a defensive scheme that works very well. Last year, Utah held Air Force to under 75 rushing yards, when they were averaging 275 ypg. This year, Utah had prepared for AIr Force's new offense, and they didn't spend enough time on the option. Look for Utah to keep Tate in the box as a fourth linebacker basically spying on the running back, and watch for Kruger and Burnett to hold the line to spy the QB. What makes Navy so difficult to defend is their true balanced attack. Consider this: SEVEN players have over 450 yards rushing on the season. Their QB is the biggest running threat - just 200 yards shy of 1,000 yards. But their fullback and slew of running backs will keep their legs fresh and keep the Utes guessing. It's cliche, but Utah must play "assignment football", and not try and rely too much on their instincts.

Special Teams: Utah has the edge, in terms of punting and field goal kicking. But Navy has a very dangerous weapon at kick-return: Reggie Campbell. He's a speedster who runs track, and he ran for a 98 yard TD vs. Army, and also averaged over 30 yards per punt return in that game. Hopefully, we don't seen an encore on Thursday.



Stat of the week: This game will likely be decided by half-time. Utah is 8-0 when leading at half-time - and some reasons for this include the fact that they maintain great ball control - 31:22 per game is ranked 12th in the NCAA. They also do not turn over the ball very often, ranking 15th in the NCAA in turnover margin. Mostly, it's because when teams are behind, they tend to pass. And Utah's passing D is downright awesome. They have only given up 7 passing TDs all year - first in the NCAA by far. They haven't given up a passing TD in the past six games.
So, Utah will need to start strong, and they won't want to play catch-up when Navy controls the ball even better than the Utes.

My pick: Utah 31, Navy 16
Next game: We'll do a Hula Bowl preview, since Utah will have three players playing in Honolulu.