Thursday, December 20, 2007
Poinsettia Bowl Preview
Utah vs. Navy
Date & Time: 7 PM MT, December 22, 2007
TV: ESPN
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Qualcomm Stadium, San DIego, California
All-time series: First meeting
The scoop: Utah is playing in its fifth straight bowl game, hoping to get its seventh consecutive bowl win. Currently, their six bowl game win streak is the second-longest in the nation, only behind Boston College (with seven). Their streak includes the Vegas Bowl ('99), the Vegas Bowl ('01), Liberty Bowl ('03), Fiesta Bowl ('04), the Emerald Bowl ('05), and the Armed Forces Bowl ('06).
Bowl games are something that Kyle Whittingham and the Utes players and fans are now very accustomed to. And while the crowd is certain to be more of an 'away' game than a 'home' game, there will be a large Ute crowd at the game - likely around 10,000 - 12,000.
There are a ton of Navy fans, and they are expecting this crowd to be a record for this bowl game - with 47,500 fans planned to be in attendance.
Tonight at the pep rally, Coach Whittingham had all of the seniors speak, as well as Brian Johnson and Louie Sakoda.
Kyle Guenther gave the crowd a good laugh when he said that he was glad to play Navy and hopes to kill them because he "hate(s) amphibious people".
The Navy players and Utah players had some events together. They met with Lou Holtz
today, who spoke to them at a lunch onboard a ship in the harbor. I'm not sure about everything that was said by Lou Holtz, but I did overhear him saying "Thith ith very exthiting" The Navy players commented that they really don't consider Army as their most hated rival. They reserve this hatred for Air Force. This has become the game that they circle on their schedule each year, and there is no love-loss between those two programs. The Navy media has shown a keen interest in Utah's returned missionaries, and they took special note of Steve, who is married with a child. The cadets aren't allowed to be married while enrolled. The Baltimore Sun published an article recently, mostly about Steve: (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/college/football/bal-sp.navy18dec18,0,3564590.story).
Key Match-up: Throughout the entire game, you'll hear the match-up between one of the top defenses in the NCAA (Utah ranks 2nd in scoring D and 2nd in passing D) against one of the most potent offenses in the NCAA (Navy is the top rushing O and top 5 in scoring). As such, most expect that the key match-up will be how Utah adjusts to Navy's top-ranked rushing offense. ESPN Insider broke down the key match-up in the following manner:
Navy QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada vs. Utah SS Steve Tate
Tate is a tough run stopper and a playmaker in coverage, but he can be overaggressive, so he gets caught out of position at times. If he doesn't stay disciplined in this game, it will open the door for Kaheaku-Enhada to provide the Navy offense with big plays. Kaheaku-Enhada is fast enough to go the distance when he gets a seam and Tate will be one of the last lines of defense when he carries the ball. As a result, Tate must take sound pursuit angles and play under control when he sees Kaheaku-Enhada tuck the ball and run. He can't afford any breakdowns in coverage either. Though he lacks elite arm strength, Kaheaku-Enhada puts adequate velocity and decent touch on his downfield passes. He's more than capable of finding a receiver over the middle when Tate bites on play action. On the other hand, Kaheaku-Enhada must be willing to throw the ball away or check to another receiver when Tate doesn't buy the play fake. Tate reads opposing quarterbacks' eyes and rarely drops passes he should catch.
Good break-down. But why do I giggle when I think about Lou Holtz trying to read that breakdown?
What to expect this week:
Offense: While I do believe that the Navy QB vs. Utah S matchup will be a huge factor in the game, I actually think that the key will be Utah's offense. Why? I think that Navy will gain its fair share of yards, but I think Utah's defensive scheme will keep them from the big plays, and keep them out of the endzone most of the day. The real question is whether Utah's offense will come out prepared - like they didn't do vs. BYU. If Utah can hold Navy under 20 points (they're averaging nearly 44 on the season), which they should, then Utah needs at least 20 points to win. Mack will keep them honest, and I expect him to have at least 25 carries and 100 yards, and he'll keep the clock running. But if Utah wants to beat Navy, they have to do what they didn't do vs. BYU. They must exploit a weak passing D. Navy's passing D is one of the worst in the NCAA. They gave up 650 passing yards to North Texas. They gave up 52 points and over 550 yards to Delaware. I just hope that Andy Ludwig looked at these stats and comes in with a solid game plan. For Utah to win soundly, Brian Johnson must come out aggressive - like he did vs. Louisville. They will have success if they throw the long ball to Richards and Wilson, and if they use Godfrey in such a way where he can take advantage of his size (think post patterns). The 'triple and double reverse' plays should be put away - though I think Utah will find success using Brooks and Wesson on sweeps to the outside. The key is to maintain ball control. Utah must convert at least 40% on 3rd down conversions, because Navy is converting on nearly 50% of theirs.
Defense: Many are saying that Utah struggles with the option. However, I think that this is an oversimplification. When Utah prepares for the option, they actually have a defensive scheme that works very well. Last year, Utah held Air Force to under 75 rushing yards, when they were averaging 275 ypg. This year, Utah had prepared for AIr Force's new offense, and they didn't spend enough time on the option. Look for Utah to keep Tate in the box as a fourth linebacker basically spying on the running back, and watch for Kruger and Burnett to hold the line to spy the QB. What makes Navy so difficult to defend is their true balanced attack. Consider this: SEVEN players have over 450 yards rushing on the season. Their QB is the biggest running threat - just 200 yards shy of 1,000 yards. But their fullback and slew of running backs will keep their legs fresh and keep the Utes guessing. It's cliche, but Utah must play "assignment football", and not try and rely too much on their instincts.
Special Teams: Utah has the edge, in terms of punting and field goal kicking. But Navy has a very dangerous weapon at kick-return: Reggie Campbell. He's a speedster who runs track, and he ran for a 98 yard TD vs. Army, and also averaged over 30 yards per punt return in that game. Hopefully, we don't seen an encore on Thursday.
Stat of the week: This game will likely be decided by half-time. Utah is 8-0 when leading at half-time - and some reasons for this include the fact that they maintain great ball control - 31:22 per game is ranked 12th in the NCAA. They also do not turn over the ball very often, ranking 15th in the NCAA in turnover margin. Mostly, it's because when teams are behind, they tend to pass. And Utah's passing D is downright awesome. They have only given up 7 passing TDs all year - first in the NCAA by far. They haven't given up a passing TD in the past six games.
So, Utah will need to start strong, and they won't want to play catch-up when Navy controls the ball even better than the Utes.
My pick: Utah 31, Navy 16
Next game: We'll do a Hula Bowl preview, since Utah will have three players playing in Honolulu.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Making a case
If you're going to vote for anybody for first-team all conference safety, your first pick has got to be Steve Tate, and here's why:
1. Utah's passing D was unbelievable, and he was the anchor on that passing D. Just how tough was that passing D? Well, they were first in the MWC in passing yards, passing TDs, pass efficiency, pass completion ratio, and interceptions. Want more evidence of how good they were? They were also 12th in the NCAA in passing yards, fourth in the NCAA in completion ratio, 2nd in the NCAA in pass efficiency D, and first in the NCAA in passing TDs given up. Keep in mind that Utah lost the MWC defensive player of the year and 2nd round NFL pick Eric Weddle, and actually IMPROVEd in the secondary. You've GOT to recognize the best player on the best unit with first-team honors.
2. Utah's overall D was tops in the MWC, and Steve was the leader. He led the team with tackles (98 total, 8.3 per game), with Tackles for Loss (10.0), was fourth on the team in sacks (2.5), tied for second on the team in interceptions (3), and fourth on the team in pass break-ups (4). Again, you've GOT to recognize the best player on the best D in the MWC with first-team honors.
3. Look at his stats. He is the 2nd leading tackler amongst all safeties in the MWC. He is 1st in the MWC amongst safeties in Tackles for Loss (10.0), 1st in the MWC for safeties for INTs (3), and in the top three in sacks (2.5). He had five games during the year with double-digit tackles, and he also won MWC player of the week during the year.
4. His career. After the bowl game, he will be the first Utah DB in history to reach 100+ in consecutive years. He'll have more than 250 career tackles and five interceptions.
It's unfortunate that Utah and the entire MWC lacked the exposure that they've had in years past. I think that this has made it more difficult for Tate to stand out. But based on the above criteria, it isn't far-fetched to consider Tate the MWC defensive player of the year. But there is no doubt that his performance merits the recognition as the top player at his position in the MWC. He deserves first-team this year, and it would be a travesty if he doesn't get it.
No break-down
You'll see a trend in my posts. I typically just post all of my weekly write-ups, which I send to a number of fans each week. In those write-ups, I analyze the previous game and break-down the upcoming game - pointing out match-ups to watch for, players expected to step up, and predicted scores.
Well, the BYU/Utah game on Saturday is just too hard for me to break down. It hurt. Last year, a Y friend of mine was throwing smack my way, and I was fine with. I replied simply that the best Y team of all-time had to come behind to beat a Utah team, which had underachieved all year. He said that the close games rip at the heart, and because of his hatred for the U, he'd rather win a close one than a blow-out any day. I said I'd much rather have a blow-out.
But Saturday, I knew what he was talking about. Utah should have won. 4th and 18, and we could have humbled BYU, and put to rest the "Harline is Open" talk for good. But Utah lost the game. They lost it. It wasn't just the blown Cover 2 which kept the miracle drive going which lost it. It was the pathetic play by the offense. It was the mental break-down by the OC (and QB). Utah lost that game. And it still hurts . . .
But, I'd still rather lose as a Utah fan than win as a Y fan. :)
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Utah vs. New Mexico Recap (BYU Preview)
Date & Time: 12:00 PM MT, November 24, 2007
TV: CSTV, Versus, MTN
Radio: Kall 700, KSL 1160
Location: Rice Eccles South Stadium (AKA Lavell Edwards Stadium), Provo, UT
All-time series: Utah leads series 53-32-4
Last meeting: I don't remember how it ended.
Tailgate: The Crimson Club is sponsoring a "Party in Provo" at Provo High School, beginning at 8 am. They will have plenty of food, and the cost is $15 per person. So far, 650 Ute fans have pre-registered, so we're hoping to pop the bubble.
Week in Review: If you would have told me that we'd beat New Mexico by 18 points, I'd take that in a heart beat. However, as funny as it sounds, it was a scary game, and the Utes didn't look nearly as crisp (on offense) as they had in their previous three games. But credit New Mexico for the 'scrappy' game. They always seem to bring their best game against the Utes, and always give Utah fits. Even in 2004 the Fiesta Bowl year, the New Mexico game was the one game where the offense struggled the most. Such was the case this past Saturday, and even though his stats look alright (16-27), he missed quite a few passes, and the ball didn't look sharp. But before you look into that too much, I would credit the aggressive play of New Mexico for BJ's struggles.
Meanwhile, Utah's D was as good as it has been during the winning streak. Utah's D completely suffocated the Lobos - forcing four turnovers, four sacks, and allowing just 85 rushing yards, and just one touchdown on a ten-yard field.
Who stood out? Tate had 10 tackles, Robert Johnson played fantastic - forcing another fumble, while Paul Krueger had a 1.5 sacks, one of which gave Koa Misi the chance to return it for a touchdown.
What to expect this week: This game has all of the make-up of being another classic in the history of this heated rivalry - the league's top defense against the league's top offense. Utah is on a roll - outscoring their last three opponents 105-13. They're playing like they could beat anybody in the country right now. Their scoring D is fifth in the NCAA (15.5 ppg), but that still doesn't tell the whole story, as they are averaging just 8 points per game in their last five. Utah's pass D is as good as it gets - their pass efficiency D is ranked 3rd in the NCAA (ahead of USC, and behind just LSU and Ohio State). Meanwhile, BYU is the antithesis, as they are eighth in the nation in passing yards per game, and they are first in the conference in pass efficiency.
And on the other side of the ball, Utah is third in the MWC in scoring offense and second in the MWC in rushing offense (only behind Air Force) while BYU's rushing D is 10th in the NCAA (first in MWC).
Again, something is going to have to give.
For the sake of not giving away any game preparation secrets, I'm going to break this game down in a much more simplified way: comparing it to last year. BYU's offense was much better last year than this year (36.8 ppg vs. 30.8 ppg), and their D was better (15.3 ppg vs 18.6 ppg).
Meanwhile, the 2007 Utah team is much better than last year's team. Their offense has been better, with a rushing attack that didn't exist last year. And their defense is much better (20.2 ppg vs. 15.5 ppg) and their passing D is much better (220 ypg surrendered vs. 180 ypg and 59.3% vs. 51%). And last year, Utah had a great game plan - to play physical, jam the line and blitz aggressively. Unfortunately, last year, they didn't begin implementing this game plan until they were down 14-0 in the second quarter. When they began playing aggressively on D, they dominated the second and third quarters, ultimately taking the lead until they decided to go prevent on the last play. But, the point is, last year, BYU was much better than they are this year, and they had to come from behind to beat the Utes.
This Utah team will not let BYU throw for more than 250 yards, and they will not let BYU beat them on the ground. If Utah comes out playing the same level of intensity on D as they have the last few games, and if they scheme well for Unga, then I really do not see BYU scoring more than two touchdowns.
Here are the keys:
1. Utah's defense. Utah's scoring D is ranked 5th in the NCAA, and they are improving each week. They have now given up just one TD in the past 14 quarters - and in the past four games, they have not given up a touchdown drive more than 50 yards. The key is on the front line. This front line will be largely outmanned against BYU's line, who can pass as the first season of the "Biggest Loser". But these defensive linemen are faster than any BYU will have faced. Between Krueger, Burnett, Misi, and Long, these guys can and should get past BYU's big, but slow, O-line. I expect at least three sacks on Hall, with at least one of those creating a turnover. Hall has been very prone to turn the ball over (-6, 8th in the MWC), and Utah has been very opportunistic with TOs this year (+10, 1st in MWC).
The key in this game will be with the safeties and linebackers, as it will be up to them to prevent a rushing attack. Last year, Tate held Curtis Brown to 45 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards - well below his average. Look for the same type of shut-down performance with Unga this year. The safeties, however, will have to account for 6'5" Dennis Pitta, as well as Unga, and the LBs will have to stay on their assignments. Look for Nai Fotu to have a big impact on this game.
2. Utah's offense. Brian Johnson is going to come out and test this BYU passing D. Not only is the BYU secondary vulnerable healthy (as seen vs. Tulsa), but they are currently NOT healthy, and they need to be exploited. BJ didn't have a great game against UNM, but look for him to go long to pick on the converted cornerback, Ben Criddle, trying to anchor the BYU D. Wyoming, as pathetic as Sween looked vs. Utah, threw for 277 yards on BYU last week. The BYU secondary was called for PI a few times in that game, where they held when it was apparent they were getting beat. I'm looking for Braden Godfrey, Derek Richards, and Marquis Wilson to be long ball targets and creating some very big plays on Saturday.
Mack will have a very hard time hitting 100 yards on Saturday, but I do see the OL and Mack having a chip on their shoulders, and giving it all they have. I expect Mack to have about 75 yards rushing on Saturday.
Look for Brian's break-out game on Saturday. It may not be a huge game statistically for him, but he will manage the game well, keeping sustained drives and not allowing any TOs.
Stat of the week: Here's a stat for you: since 2000, when BYU fails to score 20 points, they are 1-22. In fact, if they score less than 30 points, they are just .300. If Utah can play the same type of D that they did last year in the 2nd and 3rd quarter (and like they have for most of this season), and not allow any Y defensive or special teams TDs, then Utah will win. It's that simple
Here's another quick fact: BYU still sucks.
My pick: Utah 27, Team Down South 17
Next game: Utah in San Diego vs. Navy (NCAA's top rushing offense) on December 20th at the Poinsettia Bowl.
Utah vs. Wyoming Recap (New Mexico Preview)
VS
NEW MEXICO LOBOS
Date & Time: 3:30 PM MT, November 17, 2007
Tailgate: We'll be meeting at 1 pm for the Ute Walk. Then we’ll be having some catered grub, so I will need you to RSVP. I guarantee some good grub – but I’ll only order enough for those who RSVP. Just like last week, everybody must go to the game on Saturday. We need a sold-out crowd. This is the final home game for the seniors (unless you count the game at Rice Eccles South next week), and it’s only right that we honor them the right way after such a dramatic turn-around.
Week in Review: Can the Utes be more dominant than they’ve been in the past two games? After a serious waxing of CSU by 24 points, they decided more of a statement needed to be made? The results? A 50-0 clobbering that had local media and zoobies nationwide crying about sportsmanship and running up the score? What a great thing to be accused of!
Some still doubted after the TCU and CSU game. And while it may be true that those teams haven’t proven to be great teams, can you really doubt that this team is playing at a top 25 level now? The Utes held Wyoming to 37 rushing yards. That’s right. 37. And while some whiners felt that Utah was running up the score, anybody who watched the entire game could tell you that it could have been much, much worse. Sure, Kyle decided to attempt an untimely and unwise onside kick in the third quarter, the truth of the matter is that all of the starters were taken out in the fourth quarter. Utah’s play calling in the fourth quarter was extremely conservative. I’m not sure why the local media decided to give BYU a pass when they left their starters in the entire game against Eastern Washington, but so be it.
What did I take from it? I’m giddy. Coach Whittingham showed that he does have a killer instinct. Enough of a killer instinct that the rest of the conference is getting very, very, nervous. And it’s not just Kyle. This is a team which very much still wants to make a statement. They’ve won six straight in impressive fashion, and this team has now gone 10 straight quarters without giving up a touchdown. This is a pissed off team.
Who stood out? As predicted, Tate had another big game with an INT and two tackles for loss. Gabe Long was a monster on the D-line with three sacks, five tackles, and a forced fumble. Derek Richards was also money, with 86 receiving yards and over 100 return yards.
Here’s the picture of the game:
What to expect this week: New Mexico has had one of their best years in their recent history, as they squeaked out a win against CSU last week (27-24). And despite the poor showing in their past two, keep in mind that this is a very talented team. Offensively, they have the most impressive talent in the conference with Marcus Smith at WR (11th in the NCAA in rec. per game) and Rodney Ferguson leading the way (averaging over 100 ypg). On D, they continue to be aggressive like Rocky Long-coached teams always are.
The Lobos are sitting in the same place as the Utes – with two conference losses, hoping for a strong finish and some help from BYU’s opponents. They will come out with confidence, as they have ‘owned’ the Utes as of late (winning the last two, and with a record of 5-2 vs. Utah since 2000) and will likely be the most aggressive team Utah has played so far this year. In this game, with the Lobos great WRs, expect Utah to alternate blitzing and spying on Ferguson, and daring Porterie to throw to their top WRs in man coverage.
Fortunately, though their records look similar, Utah and New Mexico are going in two opposite directions. Utah is on a roll, and New Mexico is trying to find themselves. Look for the Utes to take advantage of their new identity as they continue on their Tour d’ Revenge.
Here's why:
1. Utah's defense. Utah's scoring D is now ranked 5th in the NCAA, and they are improving each week. As mentioned previously, they have not given up a TD in 10 straight quarters, and really haven’t given up a TD with a full-length drive since the Louisville game. And while the passing D is the obvious strength (8th in the NCAA, with passing efficiency D ranked at fourth), the rushing D has become a serious force to be reckoned with, as they are giving up just over 60 rushing ypg in the past four games. An interesting stat is that New Mexico scores under 20 points, they’re winning just 10% of those games, and when scoring under 30 points, they’re winning just 42% (most teams with winning records are over 50%. Utah is 55%). As long as Utah can hold them below their average (26 ppg), they’ll very likely to win.
Look for the D-ends (Kruger, Burnett, Puccinelli) to wreak havoc on Porterie in this game - which should cause some key turn-overs. They didn't respond well to TCU's end-pressure, and they'll have just as many problems with Utah's.
2. New Mexico's Defense. Even though New Mexico’s D is always aggressive. However, this is a team that needs a powerful offense in order to win, because they’re not particularly strong at keeping opponents from scoring (they give up just under 22 ppg – 5th in the MWC). They have the most difficulty defending the pass – where they rank next-to-last in the MWC (212 ypg). Brian starting throwing the long ball last week, and while the touch wasn’t quite there yet, the arm strength was. Expect him to take advantage of the Lobos’ safeties playing in the box to stop Mack, and connect on a few long passes to his receivers. If they plan to stop Mack between the tackles, look for the Lobos to be soft around the ends, and look for Utah to go to this often. Based on what we’ve seen from the Lobos this season, I expect Utah to, at the very least, score their season average on the Lobos (26.8 ppg). And as I’ve said before, look for how they start. Utah is 6-2 this year when they score first. And when Utah scores at least 20 points (UNM gives up nearly 22 ppg), they win 82% of their games. Expect a huge game from BJ. He's had this game circled on his calendar since they tore his ACL two years ago.
3. The revenge factor. The New Mexico game last year was a low point for the Utes. They had a 24-3 lead, only to give up 24 unanswered points. The Utes want to redeem themselves, and they’ve had success this season in their revenge games (UCLA, Wyoming) this season.
A Conference Championship? It seems highly unlikely, but look for the Cowboys to give the Cougars at the very least a good scare this weekend, as weather should give the Pokes some advantage. I personally didn’t see anything about the Cowboy to make me think that they’re capable of winning against BYU, but stranger things have happened. Let's just honor Cowboy Joe with our own one-finger salute to our least favorite Y colleague. Hopefully Cowboy Joe gets his players fired up for their embarrassment last week, and for last year’s melt down in Provo. The more likely scenario is that, after Utah knocks off the Y, the Cougs have a melt-down in sunny San Diego (think Hawaii 2001)!
My pick: Utah 31, New Mexico 16
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Utah vs. CSU Summary (Wyoming Preview)
VS
WYOMING COWBOYS
Date & Time: 1:30 PM MT, November 10, 2007
TV: CSTV
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Rice Eccles Stadium, SLC, UT
All-time series: Utah leads series 47-31-1
Last meeting: 2006, Wyoming 31-15
Tailgate: We'll be having some rootin', tootin' home- made Cowboy Chili. We'll have bread bowls, for those who want just chili, and we'll have hot dogs for those who want chili dogs. We'll be meeting at 11 am so that we can go to the Ute Walk, and then we'll get cooking. Please RSVP if you plan to come. We have people bringing chili, cheese, and sour cream. But we still need people to bring drinks, bread bowls, and some sort of desert. If you can't make it to the tailgate - that's fine. But everybody must go to the game on Saturday. We need a sold-out crowd that game. The Utes can win out, and you don't want to miss seeing a strong finish to a very memorable season.
Week in Review: Well, CSU was probably the best 1-6 team in the NCAA. That was probably a true statement by Coach Whittingham. But you can put a lipstick on a pig, and it's still a pig, and the truth is that CSU is now 1-8, and teams that are 1-8 are not good teams.
That being said, nobody should dismiss Utah's win in Fort Collins because it was a big win. Not only is it always a big deal to come out of Fort Collins with a "W" (Utah had only done it twice in fourteen years), but Utah won in a very convincing fashion - 27-3. And it wasn't just the score that was lopsided. Utah held CSU to zero touchdowns (they were averaging 24 ppg going into that game), they held them to 1-12 on third down conversions, and they held them to 135 rushing yards. Meanwhile, Utah put up 470 yards of offense and 330 yards of rushing yards. Yes, even though this Ram team is not the typical Sonny Lubick-type of Ram team, the way in which Utah won was very impressive, and should have made any Utah fan very optimistic about the remainder of Utah's season.
My top three highlights from the CSU game:
3. The first touchdown of the game. This was huge, because it was on the first drive of the game. Utah has scored on their first drive in three straight games (going back to Louisville). But not only that, it was a screen pass to a seldom-used Ray Stowers, who fought hard to get into the endzone. It was a foreshadowing of bigger things to come from Stowers - who ended up finishing the game with 123 rushing yards and 2 TDs.
2. A few of the defensive highlights: Steve's pick in the first half was a huge pick, because that was about the point where Sonny lost confidence in Hanie (they replaced him in the second half). But I also loved Fotu's sack - where he didn't tackle the QB. He brought him down by plowing over the O-lineman into Hanie. Impressive.
1. And my favorite highlight of the game didn't take place on the field. It took place in the stands at Hughes Stadium. In the fourth quarter, a drunk, obnoxious CSU fan, wearing a replica jersey, a joker hat, and giant green and yellow mardi gras beads starting yelling at Randy Lewis (the guy who does the U-T-A-H cheers at all of the games), and charged towards him to knock him off the wall. Suddenly, the guy gets leveled - wrapped up and tackled to the ground. By who? By Wynn Tate. After the game, the word had spread down to Chris Hill and Coach Whit. Even Coach Anderson got in on the action by telling Mr. Tate that he'd see if he could find an open scholarship next year to sign him - based on what he heard about the tackle. Classic moment that we'll be hearing about for years.
What to expect this week: Wyoming is now just playing to become bowl eligible. They've lost three conference games (and three games in a row), and they have no realistic shot at even a shared MWC title. But don't dismiss the desire to give the lovely town of Laramie a bowl eligible football team. Cowboy Joe's Wyoming squad will be prepared for this game, and they will be playing with everything they have, so don't expect them to keel over and die. The Cowboys may not look like a good team, if you base it off their past three games. But this is a team that beat a top 20 Virginia team at Virginia by three touchdowns - holding the Cavaliers to just a field goal in a 23-3 victory. Wyoming has the potential to play like the best team in the MWC. Their strengths are their defense. They actually have the #1 defense in the MWC this season (in terms of total yardage given up). In fact, they're sixth in the nation, giving up just 287 yards per game. That's very good. Fortunately, this season, Utah is just a better team than Wyoming. They are more athletic and, believe it or not, are much more consistent. At least since Brian Johnson has been back as the starter and they've found a reliable running game.
Here's why Utah will win this week:
1. Utah's defense. Utah's scoring D is ranked 13th in the NCAA, giving up just over 17 ppg. Utah has been playing much more aggressively on D. We're seeing aggressive and unpredictable play-calling - with blitz packages from every angle on the D and stunting at the line. This has caused confusion from every opposing team, and has led to the most sacks in the MWC in the past four games and the most turn-overs recovered in the MWC in the past four games. In addition, the Utes are giving up just over 74 rushing ypg in the past four games - as opposed to nearly 160 ypg in the first three games.
Just like the game plan vs. CSU, Utah should again stack the box and not let Wyoming's good tandem running backs beat them, and let Sween beat them through the air with as much pressure as possible constantly coming at him.
2. Wyoming's Offense. While Utah's D is good, it's should make for an even more productive day for the defense considering that they are not facing an offensive juggernaut. Wyoming is averaging just 349 ypg - which is last in the MWC. The Cowboys are also averaging only 21 points per game - which is second to last in the MWC. They do have two very talented backs, and that is why they're the third best rushing team in the MWC, but Utah's D should be able to contain them well enough. The key will be getting pressure on Sween to force him into making stupid mistakes - which he has been very prone to do. He has been replaced game-time in two different games, so even the coaches are lacking confidence in him. And with 12 INTs thrown so far this year, Utah should have some luck in getting one or tow this game.
3. Whit's proven ability to prepare. Whittingham is 2-0 when coming off byes. However, if you include bowl games - which are pretty much four consecutive bye weeks - he's 4-0 as a head coach. And the numbers don't tell the whole story. Even as a Defensive Coordinator, Kyle Whittingham was always known for putting together a very thorough game plan when he had time to prepare. This bye week will help the Utes - not only to help give time to some dinged-up players (like Brian Johnson's shoulder, Freddy Brown's concussion, Braden Godfrey's back, Mack's ankle), but also to give Kyle an extra week to put together a solid plan. Last year was an embarassment to Kyle and his coaching staff, and he will want to make a statement from the beginning. Look for a very strong start for the Utes.
A Conference Championship? It seemed like an impossible thought just a few weeks ago. But the Utes have a very good shot at sharing a MWC title this year. To help the Utes, we need TCU to pound the little kitties down south on Thursday night. And even though I hope for a BYU defeat every week, I actually think that TCU is the team to give us what we all want. This TCU team is now playing like the team everybody thought they'd be pre-season. Tommy Blake is back, and he has brought some energy back to the defense. Not only did they beat the league's top-scoring offense on Saturday, but they shut them out 37-0. And not only did they shut them out, but they held them to 28 rushing yards and 78 passing yards for the entire game. They killed them. TCU has the athletes to give BYU fits, as long as they don't commit stupid turn-overs. Look for the Horned Frogs to get to Hall often and force a few fumbles. If we're lucky, maybe we can see this QB cry after the game. Go Horned Frogs!
My pick: Utah 27, Wyoming 13
Next week: New Mexico at Utah @ 3:30 pm.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Utah at TCU Recap (Utah at CSU Preview)
AT
Colorado State
Date & Time: 3:30 PM MT, Saturday, October 27, 2007
TV: Mtn. (??)
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium, Fort Collins, CO
All-time series:
Last meeting: 2006,
Tailgate: Grill up some Ram Chops on your own. But make it a longer get together so you can tune in to Game 3 of the World Series right after the game. And if you’re a die-hard sports fan, then drive to the CSU game on Saturday, hit Game 4 of the World Series in
Week in Review: So, the light turned green again on Thursday, and the ‘good’ Utes showed up for the fourth straight game. To the average football fan – the one perusing the satellite during the commercial break from the baseball game or the South Florida game who happened to stumble across the Versus network – Thursday’s game probably didn’t seem to be very impressive. But as
But as for the actual break-down of this game, the best thing to do is just read my preview. As predicted, the Utes forced
On offense,
My prediction was 26-20, and the final score was 27-20. Why did I say 26? Not sure. But at least if you would have listened to me, you’d be a little richer right now.
What to expect this week: Coach Whit has already pulled out the old cliché – “this CSU team is the best 1-6 team in the nation.” Sure, it’s probably a true statement. But isn’t that kind of like me bragging about being the best athlete in my Thursday night Dungeons and Dragons group? It’s really not saying a whole lot.
But we know what the coach means. CSU cannot be taken lightly. Sure, they had lost 13 in a row, before their big win last week. But this is a CSU team who lost to
Why
1. CSU’s Defense. CSU has the worst rush defense in the MWC. Worse than SDSU, and in the bottom 15 in the entire NCAA. To give you an idea, they have given up an average of 212 yards per game and five yards per carry on the ground, and have given up 17 rushing touchdowns so far this season. With Mack and the offensive line on a serious roll,
Their passing D isn’t nearly as porous, but that’s likely only because teams don’t have to throw on them. They’re still letting opponents complete 60% of their pass attempts, surrendering over 200 yards per game in the air, while managing only five INTs (lowest in the MWC). Establishing the run early will set up a nice play-action, and I’m expecting great play from Godfrey, Richards, and Hernandez. Expect Johnson to throw for at least 200 yards in this one.
2.
What
Look for Gabe Long and Steve Tate at being instrumental in stopping the run, and forcing Hanie to throw. Then, look for at least two INTs for the Utes.
The Magic Number: Since 2001,
My pick:
Next week:
Bye.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Utah vs. SDSU Recap (TCU Preview)
AT
TCU HORNED FROGS
Date & Time: 6:00 PM MT, October 18, 2007
TV: VERSUS
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Amon Carter Stadium , Fort Worth , TX
All-time series: Utah leads series 3-1
Last meeting: 2006, Utah 20-7
Tailgate: On your own.
Week in Review: The question going into this game was, which Utah team was going to show up? Unfortunately, getting ready to watch the Utes (of the past two years), I get the same type of nervous feeling that I get when going through customs in Mexico. Don't pretend you don't know what I'm talking about. When the little official-looking guy takes your passport and tells you to "touch de button". It's all random, and you really have no idea what to expect. Will the traffic light turn green. Or will it turn red? Fortunately for us all, it was green, and the good Utah team showed up Saturday. Yea! Darrell Mack showed that his previous three games weren't flukes. The guy is looking legit. He put up 50 yards of offense himself in the first drive. Unfortunately, his big play produced no points (as he fumbled in the end zone). The only gripe on Saturday's game was that the first drive was more or less a microcosm of the rest of the game. The Utes could move the ball at will (520 yards of offense), but they left a lot of points on the field. As expected, Utah exploited the poor rushing D of SDSU.
Defensively, Utah looked better than expected. In fact, they probably looked better than they have all year - including the UCLA game. The only reason that they gave up a TD was because of a gimmick play where their QB had a 35 yard catch. The D came out aggressive, and only gave up 8 first downs the entire game. As expected, they got to O'Connell five times. What's surprising, though, is that at least three of those sacks were coverage sacks. Utah's passing D looked very good, which led to an Aztec offense looking as confused as their coach Chuck Long, who apparently thinks its still cool to sport the Oakley RazorBlade sunglasses (yeah, the Boz retired a while ago).
Those who missed the game (and the red seats indicated that a lot of fans did) missed out on an opportunity to see Utah's future shine. True freshman Corbin Louks threw another TD and also had a 40 yard run. True freshman Jereme Brooks caught another TD pass. True freshman Nai Fotu had the hit of the game, as well as a forced fumble and big sack. It was exciting to see these young kids make such a big contribution so early, and should get you excited for the next few years.
What to expect this week: If Utah really wants to show that they've turned the corner this season, they have to find a way to win on Thursday. In Whittingham's three seasons as the Utes Head Coach, he has never won four in a row. A win at TCU would give the Utes a ton of momentum, get them back to .500 in conference play, and give the fans something to be very optimistic about. But it's not going to be easy. Based on history, you'd give TCU the nod. The Horned Frogs 23-4 home record (since 2003) is one of the very best in the NCAA. In addition, they have only lost one MWC game at home in three seasons in the conference. Even though they get maybe 15,000 home fans to their games, the Horned Frogs are a very tough team to beat at home.
But based on momentum, you'd have to give Utah the nod. In the past two games, the Utes have found a running game (over 250 rushing yards per game the past two games), maintained a great passing game (Brian Johnson is completing over 70% of his passes the past two games), and the D has completely disrupted the opponents game plans, holding each of their opponents well below their season averages (with 8 sacks the past two games, under 110 rushing yards given up in two games combined).
In the end, I'm going with Utah (big surprise), and here's why:
1. Utah's offense. Utah has put up some impressive offensive numbers the past two games. Mack has found his rhythm, and is averaging over six yards per carry. Not only that, Utah is finding other unique ways to put up an additional 100 rushing yards per game - like using Louks on the keepers, using BJ on an occasional option play, and using their receivers on the sweeps. If Utah can be persistent with their running attack, they'll find success. Last week, TCU gave up 109 yards to Stanford's running back - which was his season high. TCU's passing D is much stiffer, and nobody has been able to put up more than 250 yards on the Horned Frogs. Utah should look to get about 220 yards passing, but most importantly, not throw any picks. BJ must show the poise and patience that he has shown in the past two games.
2. Utah's Defense. Utah's pass coverage is as athletic as any that TCU has faced this year. While it will hurt to not have Robert Johnson on the field this game, Sean Smith and Brice McCain will not allow the freshman QB Dalton to get in any sort of rhythm. Meanwhile, Utah's fast D-line (particularly Burnett and Krueger) will be able to get some pressure on Dalton (who is getting sacked about twice per game on average), and hopefully rush him into some poor decisions. The key for the Utes will be to slow Aaron Brown and the rest of TCUs running attack - just like we saw them do against Louisville and SDSU. In fact, Utah's best bet is to force Dalton to throw by focusing more on the run. If they do, Utah should be able to control the game.
The Magic Number: With Gary Patterson as head coach, TCU is 38-0 when allowing 17 points or less. Overall, the Frogs have won 53 consecutive games when holding the opponent to 17-or-fewer points. If Utah doesn't score 17 points, they'll lose. If they can score their season average (27 points), they'll win, as its not likely the Utes will allow TCU to put up more than their average (23 ppg).
My pick: Utah 26, TCU 20
Next week: Utah at CSU at Fort Collins, CO at 4 pm MT, Saturday October 27th.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Utah vs. Louisville Recap (SDSU Break-Down)
Date & Time: 1:00 PM MT October 5th, 2007
TV: Comcast Channel 111 (High Def Channel 675)
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
All-time series: Utah leads series 13-12-1
Last meeting: 2006, Utah 38-7
Tailgate: We'll be at our usual spot at 10:30 am - in preparation for the Ute Walk at that time. We'll have some Mexican food, but we'd love anybody who is planning on coming to let me know, and let me know what you'd like to bring so we can plan well.
Week in Review: Sorry for the delay on this week's break-down. I'm in Mexico right now, and I'm having to deliver this via telegram.
Utah vs. Louisville. Wow. That was definitely one of my favorite regular season road trips I've experienced. Louisville is really a cool city, and their fans are great. Honestly, I've never met nicer fans. I'm not used to fans actually welcoming us to their stadium and their tailgates, and going out of their way to be nice. A contrast to attending games at places like Colorado State where the fans also go out of their way, but usually to say "F*#& Utes!" And not only were there fans polite, their players actually came over to the Utah section after the game to give five to all of Utah's fans. Seriously. And Papa John Stadium is really nice - every seat is a bucket seat, it's really clean, great concessions, cool Johnny Unitas (alum) museum, and according to the players, the nicest facilities they've had thus far.
But at the end of the day, we really don't care if the fans are polite or not. The fact is, if the Utes came out playing like they did in Vegas, I probably would have hated Louisville and their fans. But alas, the Utes came out looking like a top 25 team in the first half. They really looked unstoppable. On nearly every drive, Utah imposed their will and it seemed that the only reasons they didn't sustain a couple drives was because of dumb, recognizable errors (like the clock mismanagment at the end of the first half). And as great as the offense looked, the D looked even better. Louisville was averaging over 200 yards per game rushing. At the half, Utah held them to -26 yards. Louisville had allowed six sacks all year, and at the half, Utah had two.
But Utah's allergy or fear to stepping on the opponents throat reared its ugly head in the second half. Despite Utah's success in a Cover 3 in the first half, the coaches decided it would be best to go to a loose zone in the second half, and Brohm and company responded by putting up 400 yards of offense in the second half. That's not a typo. 400 yards in the second half.
Fortunately, Louisville's D is as good as I thought they were, and Brian Johnson and Darrell Mack took advantage of each possession, and ultimately milked out the win by scoring last. But despite the soft ending, it ended up being a very close game, and a great victory for this team. They showed great on national TV, they beat a team that had national championship hopes at the beginning of the year, and they knocked the rust off of Brian Johnson to help him and the team gain confidence.
As for the prediction, well, I'd brag about being so dead on (I picked the Utes: 37-35. Actual score: 44-35), but I'd be creating false expectations for the future. Like the Utes should do, I'll just take my small victory and move on.
What to expect this week: If Utah shows the same desire to win as they have in their three wins this year, Utah wins. San Diego State, while quite talented, is just not a great team. Their wins this year have come against a D-AA school, and Colorado State (who has lost 12 straight games).
Here are the main reasons Utah wins this week:
1. San Diego State's rushing D. SDSU is giving up 184 yards per game, against pretty average competition. With Utah finally finding confidence in their running game (having just rushed for 260 yards last week), I see Mack having his fourth 100-yard game in his last five starts, and Utah should at least get 174 yards for the game. Look for Louks to come in to run the option this week for a few plays. He'll be used quite frequently for the rest of the year.
2. San Diego State's passing D. While we're making jokes of Louisville's passing D, the Cardinals secondary hasn't shown to be as inept as San Diego State's pass defense, as the Aztecs are giving up an average of nearly 320 yards per game (115th in the NCAA). That's a lot of yards. And they have given up 12 TDs in the air in just five games. This is another game where Utah should spread it around, and hopefully give Louie's leg some rest. The Utes offensive scheme has changed, catering to Ludwig's style, and Brian Johnson also looks more comfortable in the drop-back offense. He's showing great patience and great vision - often making passes to his third or fourth option.
3. San Diego State's Pass Protection. While Kevin O'Connel is a very good QB (probably the second best QB Utah will face this year, only behind Brohm), the Aztec O-line hasn't been doing him any favors. They have given up 15 sacks in just 5 games so far this season. For those counting at home, they're on pace to give up 36 sacks on the year. Compare that with Brohm, who is on pace to be sacked just 13 times all year, and you'll see why Kruger, Burnett, Misi, and Puccinelli should be pretty excited for Saturday. It's interesting to note that the Utes have 10 tackles for loss (15th in the NCAA) for a loss of 151 yards (10th in NCAA). The key will be for Utah's front four to get pressure on O'Connell without needing to blitz, as Utah will want to play back and prevent O'Connell from making big plays. I'm expecting no fewer than four sacks for the Utes, with at least one of those sacks resulting in a turnover.
However, if Utah does not exploit this weakness, and does not get adequate pressure on O'Connell, then it could be tough for Utah to stop him from putting up big numbers, especially considering that their #1 WR (Sweeney) is very good WR (averaging over 100 ypg), and Utah's passing D could be going through some learning curves, as Sean Smith is not expected to start this week (coaches are not happy with his poor tackling).
Take note: So far this year, there definitely have been two Utah teams. The team capable of killing top-25 teams, and the team capable of being killed by lousy teams. Here's the trick to determining which Utah team you're watching: watch the tone of the first quarter. As they go in the first, they go in the game. If we see Utah playing conservatively on defense in the first quarter, allowing SDSU to drive fairly easily (even if they don't end up in the end zone), and if we see Utah's offense stall in their first two possessions, be worried. If they come out strong, Utah will come away with their first MWC win.
My pick: Utah 34, San Diego State 17
Next week: Utah at TCU at Fort Worth San Diego State at Rice Eccles Stadium at 6 pm, Thursday October 18th.
Friday, October 5, 2007
Utah vs. Utah State Summary (Louisville Preview)
at
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
Date & Time: 6:00 PM MT October 5th, 2007
TV: ESPN (Yes, this is not a typo)
Radio: Kall 700 Location: Louisville, Kentucky
All-time series: Utah leads series 2-0 Last meeting: 1998, Utah 45-22
Tailgate: Away game, so there is no tailgate planned. But since the game is at Papa John Stadium, order in some pizza and enjoy the first and only time you'll see the Utes on a real TV station.
Week in Review: First, my apology for not sending out an e-mail after that debocle in Sin City. I left town the following week. That, combined with the fact that every time I thought about that game, I wanted to vomit.
As for the Utah State game, it was a win. When Urban Meyer was here in 2003, after a rather unimpressive win against Utah State, and with the media trying to get him to diminish the win, he said "this program is not in the position to shun a win against a Division I program." The same couldn't be more true for the 2007 Utes. Sure, it was disappointing to see the offense disappear in the first and fourth quarters. But a win is a win is a win. Utah needed to regain some confidence, give Brian Johnson some reps, and spread the ball around a little more than usual. Were there some obvious areas where Utah needs to improve? Definitely. Most importantly, Utah needs to decide on an offensive scheme. After two serious injuries in his past three games, Brian runs much more tentatively, and the spread option may not be Utah's best system. Also, the entire team needs to improve their blocking (the OL needs to improve run blocking, WRs need to improve their downfield blocking, and Mack needs to improve his pass protection). Defensively, Utah's rushing defense needs to buckle down. The middle DL seems non-existent. If the DTs can't bring more pressure, than they will need to play more aggressively with more blitz schemes.
What to expect this week: While I'm hopeful, the numbers indicate that I'm an idiot. Here are some of those reality-check stats:
1. Utah's total offense: 319 ypg (108th in the NCAA) while Louisville's total offense: 601 ypg (2nd in the NCAA).
Yeah. For those who aren't great with math, that's a big difference. Utah hasn't even cracked 400 yards in a game (even against UCLA).
Meanwhile, Louisville averages 400 yards of passing yards each game (3rd in the NCAA) while Utah averages 227 ypg (71st in the NCAA) The same concern is points per game. 24 for Utah. 46 for Louisville. Again. Big difference.
2. Louisville averages 201 rushing yards per game (25th in the NCAA) and 92 ypg (106th in the NCAA).
So, many people were thinking, Louisville is a passing team, and Utah's defensive strength is passing. Maybe Louisville won't pass as much. Uh. Not so fast. Utah averages 201 ypg on the ground. Out of all of Utah's opponents so far, only Air Force averages more (AFA with 225), and they average that many mostly because of their big game against Utah. Utah's rushing D has to step up and not let their running back, Anthony Allen, average his current average of 6 ypg - or it will be a long day.
3. Utah hasn't proven to be a great road team.
Excluding bowl games, Utah's record is 6-8 on the road. The biggest road win under the Whittingham era has been at BYU in 2005. Besides that victory, they have underperformed on the road against favored opponents.
Why I'm hopeful:
1. Utah's passing D is good. Their ypg (151) is 9th in the NCAA. They're also 11th in the NCAA in pass efficiency D (95.2).
Look for the defensive secondary - namely Brice McCain, Sean Smith, Steve Tate, and Robert Johnson - to cause some rare turn-overs from Brohm. I expect to see frequent blitzes from Tate (at SS) and Sylvester (at LB), hoping to rattle Brohm in the same way that the D rattled Olson.
2. Louisville's D is not good. They give up 417 yards per game to their opponents and 28 ppg - and that's against not-so-great competition. They also have not shown a great ability to create interceptions on defense. If Brian can stay poised, and avoid poor decisions, this could be the highest production (in terms of total yards) that Utah will have thus far.
3. Utah has Louie. Seriously. Special Teams is a big advantage. Utah is 7th in the NCAA in average punt distance (45.3), while Louisville is 7th from the bottom (33). Also, Derek Richards is sixth in the nation in punt return average (21 ypp). Not to mention the fact that Louie is Utah's second best running back on the team, this is a big benefit for the Utes. The problem is that field position hasn't mattered much for Louisville. They punt once or twice per game, is all.
4. I'm a Utah Man, Sir. That's right. I'm a homer, so I don't always base my predictions on reality.
My pick: Utah 37, Louisville 35
Next week: Utah vs San Diego State at Rice Eccles Stadium at 1 pm, Saturday October 13th.
Tailgating in the lot at 11 am.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Utah vs. #11 UCLA
VS.
#11 UCLA BRUINS
Date & Time: 3:00 September 15th, 2007
TV: VERSUS TV
Radio: Kall 700 and Sirius Radio
Location: Salt Lake City , Utah
All-time series: UCLA leads 8-0
Last meeting: 2006, Utah lost 31-10
Tailgate: The tailgate was the best part of the game last Saturday. Gordon and Lauren won the wing-eating contest and the band came and hung out with us while Mark Robbins freaked with the "3rd quarter crazy dancing lady" (don't pretend you don't know who I'm talking about). But despite the fun, we did have a low turn-out. As I don't want to buy more than necessary, this week we'll have a BBQ, and everybody can bring their own Bruin meat. Please RSVP to let me know if you're coming. We'll be there for the Utah team walk-by at 12:30, and begin tailgating at 1 pm.
Week in Review: Well, alrighty then. Things didn't get any better against the Air Force Falcons. In fact, they actually got worse. To add insult to injury- Utah added two more critical players to the IR - Brent Casteel tore his ACL in the first quarter, and Gabe Long - Utah's stud defensive lineman who showed ability to stop the run - went out in the 2nd series with a torn MCL.
Let's be fair. The fact is, Utah has had the type of bad luck that only Stephen King could imagine. Even teams like USC and LSU would be having a hard time adjusting if they lost their top 4 offensive players and best defensive lineman within the first five quarters of the season. Sure, those teams might have the depth to be in decent shape still. But there is no doubt that even those teams would be struggling to immediately cope with those same circumstances. Mentally, that's tough for a team to recover from.
However, even with those injuries, Utah should have beat Air Force had they been able to accomplish a few simple things during the game:1. If Tommy Grady could have eliminated his bad tendencies. Somebody (Ludwig) needs to teach Grady to not run straight to his right after his primary target is covered. Nothing good happens when he runs (except for, some might argue the part-scared, part-laughing, part-indigestion look I get on my face). It's that simple. Just stay in the pocket, my son, and don't panic. And while he did continue to stare straight at his intended receiver, and even though he did throw about five seconds too late on most passing plays, the problems on offense still weren't all his fault. I rarely saw the receivers break back to the ball on broken plays. I never saw the receivers block downfield, which could have helped the outside running game, or helped the YAC on some of the shorter routes. And the predictable (or in some cases, completely unpredictable and unexplainable) play-calling didn't help him much.
2. If they could have stopped - no, slowed - the running game. I mean, come on. With all due respect to our military, it's not like the Utes faced a one-two punch of Ladanian Tomlinson and Stephen Jackson. But our running D couldn't get a stop. To their credit, they did make a big stop, only to have the offense hand it back over five seconds later. But the Utes have got to find a new solution in the middle of the DL.
3. If they could have gotten the running game established. Why the problems running this season? Some have blamed the offensive coordinator. Some blame the position coach. Some blame the offensive line. Some blame the players. I say, take your pick on any given play. there's enough blame to go around. All I know is that, for some reason, 3rd and 4th downs with one yard to go, the Ute offense feels more comfortable doing end-arounds than running right at the D-linemen who have to be small enough to pilot planes. And the last play, Poston had the type of hole in front of him that had everything but a red carpet and a little man with a welcome sign - yet he chose instead to try and leap over a combined 3,000 lbs of beef-cake.
So, how were my predictions? Again, my analysis was spot on. I said that Utah didn't have to worry about the pass, but the the key was stopping the run. And on offense, I said, "they will need to put up at least 20 points. For Grady to be successful, he will need to make the adjustment of not looking at his primary receiver, and make a much bigger effort at throwing sooner."
So, I was right about the keys, but my prediction played out like a Gary Crowton hiring - it felt right at the time, but in the end, it was still wrong.What to expect this week: Well, many expect to see a blow-out. Utah will have to play without five key starters, and they have to start Tommy Grady - whom UCLA loved seeing last year. On paper, having just seen Utah lose to Air Force at home, it seems very unlikely that the Utes can hang with the #11 team in the country.
With that said, don't go rushing to put money that the Bruins will cover the spread (12.5). I truly think that the Utes could give them a very good game. BYU made UCLA look vulnerable enough that Karl Dorrell had to keep repeating at his press conference that the UCLA offense isn't that bad. Ben Olson threw for just 126 yards against BYU. That's right. Just 126 yards against a defensive secondary made up of names like Kayle Buchanon, Ben Criddle, Colby Hodgekiss. And the Bruins racked up just 236 yards of total offense. If it weren't for two turn-overs, UCLA would be looking at this as a rebound game. My point? The Bruins offense is not that good.
The key on defense is to keep Bell and Markey in check - just like they did last year in Pasadena. If they can hold them to under 130 yards rushing, and if they can keep Ben Olson from getting into any sort of passing rhythm (keeping him below 200 yards passing), Utah has a real shot at pulling an upset. The only way that the Utes can do this, however, is the same way that the Y did - they must be aggressive on D. They need to get QB pressure from our D-line, they need to blitz unexpectedly, and contain the interior line.
It should be interesting to see some of the key changes that the coaches are making this week on defense: Starting Krueger instead of Burnett at DE, moving Newman from DE to DT (they need somebody there), and moving Tate from Free Safety to Strong Safety, and replacing Joe Dale (who has played quite well) with Robert Johnson at Free Safety. With the secondary apparently as athletic and acapble as it is, the D should use the linebackers much more aggressively up front, and use Tate to blitz much more often from the SS position (think Weddle '04).On offense, it's the same keys as last week. Utah MUST try to establish a consistent running game. This means that they can't give up after a quarter. It also means that they need to mix it up - and not always run when they're under center. They cannot be as predictable as they were last year against UCLA, or as they have been thus far this year. Grady must play like he did on the last drive of the AIr Force game. I realize that the Falcons helped Grady look like a good QB on the last drive by being in a prevent D, but he stayed in the pocket and released his passes sooner, and good things happened. I really don't know what to expect on offense, but I do expect to see some trickery. There will be some players making their debut this week (and Dan, I don't think it will be Astle). Let's hope it's effective. To be in this game, Utah can't have any turn-overs, and must have more than 300 yards of offense.
My pick: Utah 27, UCLA 24 (cut me some slack. It's not like I'm trying to win money here. Plus, we have Louie!!)
Next week:
Utah vs. UNLV at Sam Boyd Stadium at 8 pm PT (9 PM MT) Saturday September 22nd.
Utah vs. Air Force
UTAH UTES
VS.
AIR FORCE FALCONS
Date & Time: 4:00 September 8th, 2007
TV: MTN (not sure what this is?)
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Salt Lake City , Utah
All-time series: Air Force leads 13-10 (though Utah has won the last four in a row)
Last meeting: 2006, Utah won 17-14
Tailgate: Meeting at the tailgate lot at 1:00. We will be having wings, in recognition of Utah ’s opponent. Please RSVP if you plan to make it, and let us know what you plan to bring, if anything (no obligation).
Week in Review: Wow. If you could imagine the most disappointing results for the season-opener, it probably couldn’t have been much worse than what actually happened. The loss was less of a disappointment than the key injuries to perhaps the two most important players on Utah ’s offense: Matt Asiata and Brian Johnson. Those injuries caused the game to change dramatically. Utah seemed to have all the momentum in the first half until they gave up a 4th and 7 towards the end of the 2nd quarter. That set up an OSU touchdown. But it got much worse. Moments later, Brian Johnson separated his shoulder on an option carry, and Utah ’s ability to move the ball went out with Brian. The second half was miserable, with the Utes converting just two first downs in the second half – the defense couldn’t get a breather, and the OSU front four dominated and paved the way for Yvenson Bernard to run all over the Utes for 171 yards.
While my prediction of the score was pretty off – I think my analysis was right on. For Utah to win the game, they had to be productive on the ground. Had Utah been able to balance their attack and put up over 100 yards, I think it would have been reasonable for them to put up 30 points. When Brian was QB, he was on his way to a pass-efficiency of 160 – which is a very good game. The problem is that, after Asiata went down, Utah could not come close to establish a running game – netting a total of 18 rushing yards. Meanwhile, I predicted that Utah would have to hold OSU to under their average of 120 rushing yards – which seemed reasonable. But that was a tall order after Utah ’s offense took the night off when Brian left. The defense got worn down while playing against a very impressive Beaver offensive line. Bernard was a great running back – but I think most any running back in the NCAA could have had a great night behind that line.
For putting up close to their 2006 average in offensive production (362 average and 370 for the night), they scored right about you would have expected (26 points average and 24 points in the game). It’s obvious that the game would have been very different without those discouraging injuries. We wish Matt and Brian healthy recoveries.
What to expect this week: Who really knows?
Seriously, though, this one will be very interesting. Air Force comes in with a more balanced attack than they’ve had in their history. On Saturday’s game against South Carolina State , Air Force ran out of the I-formation, pro-set, and wish-bone formation. Shaun Carney passed for 174 yards, and the team had close to 500 yards of total offense en route to a 34-3 clobbering the Division I-AA team.
The Utes, however, are preparing hard for the traditional triple-option attack. The Falcons may have had luck throwing against this D-2 squad, but I don’t think that McCain and Sean Smith are terribly worried about the Air Force wide-outs as their passing D was definitely Utah ’s strong point in their opener. However, Air Force has always given Utah difficulties – even when they knew that they were coming in with one formation: the triple-option. Carney is a three-year starter, and is very dangerous on the ground. Utah ’s linebackers MUST come prepared to contain the run. For the Utes to do well, look for big games from Tate at safety as well as the speedier LBs (Sylvester and Jianonni), as their play will be critical for Utah to contain the run.
On offense, Utah needs to make adjustments. Grady is not an spread-option quarterback, and you can’t force a square peg into a round hole. Expect Utah to have more plays under center for Grady, with even some two-back formations. The Utes have decided not to redshirt Darrell Mack, and you can expect to see all three RBs getting carries this Saturday. While the Ute “6-pack” of WRs were non-existent in their opener, if Utah wants to win this game, they will need to put up at least 20 points, and most of their points should come through the air. For Grady to be successful, he will need to make the adjustment of not looking at his primary receiver, and make a much bigger effort at throwing sooner. In other words, he will need to be much better in every way than he was last week. Frankly, for Utah to win, they will need to exploit the small and slower secondary of the Falcons, and I expect Godfrey and Hernandez to be the main targets again – as they are the most reliable WRs at getting open.
My pick: Utah 24, Air Force 14
Next week:
UCLA Bruins vs. Utah at Rice Eccles Stadium at 3 pm, Saturday September 15th.
Tailgating in the lot at 12 pm.
Utah at Oregon State
AT 
Date & Time: 6:00 August 30th, 2007
TV: FOX Sports Utah
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Corvallis, Oregon
All-time series: Oregon State leads 4-8-1
Last meeting: 1992 (Utah 42, OSU 9
Tailgate: Road game - no tailgate planned in SLC.
Even though the Club Tate kick-off tailgate is still more than a week away, the Utes season will get going early this Thursday in Corvalis.
Quick question: Which PAC-10 program has won the most bowl games this decade? Thought USC? Wrong. Try Oregon State.
The expectations have been very high the past several years in Corvalis, beginning with Erickson resurrecting the program and continuing with Mike Riley taking over. But in 2006, the program finally lived up to those high expectations. The Beavers finished 2nd in the PAC-10 with 10 wins, and even beat powerhouse USC.
So, you say, that was 2006. Well, the problem for the Utes is that Oregon State has nearly everyone back from 2006. 18 returning starters, to be specfic. So the season-opening trip to Corvallis will be anything but an easy task for the Utes. In fact, this first game could possibly be the best measuring stick for Utah fans. If the Utes can leave Corvalis with a win, not only will it raise some serious eyebrows, but it will provide them with a ton of confidence and momentum as they prepare for the rest of their brutal schedule.
What to expect: Oregon State's offense brings a very balanced attack. They bring arguably one of the best RBs in the PAC-10 in Yvenson Bernard (coming off his second straight 1,000 yard season), and one of the best WRs in Sammy Stroughter (the pre-season All-American will likely not play Thursday). But when asked what element of the offense makes him the most nervous, Gary Anderson didn't hesitate to respond that the Beavers offensive line will be the biggest challenge. Four of five of the OL are returning starters, so there is little doubt that the Beavers will try to rely primarily on their running game. This alone won't be enough to beat the Utes. The key for the Beavers will be to establish a successful balanced attack, which requires the dual QB system to find some sort of rhythm. Without Stroughter (possibly), and with a very athletic Utah secondary, this could prove to be difficult. If the Utah pass rush can keep pressure on the inexperienced QBs, it will make it very tough for the Beavers to put up the amount of points that they'll need to beat a potentially powerful Utah offense. Supposing that the pass D will be the strength, the key for Utah will be for the LBs and young interior DL to keep the OSU running game in check. If they can hold OSU to under their 2006 team average of 119 yards rushing , expect the Beavers to score no more than 20 points against the 'bend, but not break' Utah D.
Offensively for the Utes, the question every fan is dying to have answered is how Utah's running game will be. With all due respect to Weddle and Utah's runningbacks, the best RB on the team CAN'T be the cornerback again. On paper, it seems that the running game will take care of itself based purely on how strong the passing game can be, and based on the threat of a mobile Brian Johnson. The Utes need to keep the offense balanced and BJ indicated that the magic number will be 1,500. If the Utes can average 125 yards per game (1,500 on the season), then they'll be in good shape. The key will be on the talented but young OL, who have proven to provide solid pass protection, but need to provide solid run blocking against the Beavers. Based on the suspect OSU passing D, I think Utah will get plenty of production in the air. The question is whether or not Utah can run. If the Utes can get over 125 yards on the ground, expect at least 30 points on the scoreboard for the Utes.
My pick: Utah 31, OSU 20
Next week:
Air Force Falcons at Rice Eccles Stadium at 4 pm.
Tailgating in the lot at 1 pm.
Menu: The best wings you'll ever have.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Start of the season - perfect optimism
Ah. The beginning of a new season. There's nothing like it. Every team sees nothing but potential and possibilities of greatness. But within a week, those expectations and that momentum can change completely. Such is the life cycle for college football. A 16 week period, by which the rest of the year is measured against and anticipated for.
Well, allow myself to introduce . . . myself. I'm a Utah football fan. Have been since I was a young lad. My dad took me to Utah games when I lived in Colorado (against Air Force and Colorado State). I wasn't much of a football player myself, but I would completely polarize my elementary classes by arguing with any BYU fan. The difficult thing is, back then, Utah football hardly existed while BYU was on top of the world. But that didn't stop me from constantly using the phrase "BYU sucks" every chance I could.
I went to the University of Utah, obtaining two bachelor's degrees, and then went back to the U to obtain my Master's degree. I soaked up those free student tickets as long as I could, and loved every minute of the experience. During Coach Mac's day, while most of my fellow student body use the games as a socializing event to pick up on the opposite sex in the concession tunnels, I would watch the games hoping that Utah could become bowl eligible, knowing my dad would want to make a family trip of the bowl game.
The 2004 season was something that I had only dreamed about before. No Utah fan in their right and sober mind would have ever imagined Utah being the national media darling. Nobody could have guessed that they could have been the best team in the NCAA, killing all of their opponents en route to an undefeated season, being the first non-BCS team to go to a BCS bowl, getting College Game Day to come to Rice Eccles Stadium, having the #1 overall NFL draft pick, and the most coveted coach in college football who began a bidding war between Notre Dame and Florida. The Fiesta Bowl was an experience I'll never forget.
The past few years, my brother has played for the U, which has only made our family even more scary. My dear wife and other in-laws. I can't imagine how bored they would have to be when every discussion is centered around Utah football. Fortunately, my wife has turned into a fan, and enjoys going to the games almost as much as I do. Needless to say, our passion for Utah football is as high as its ever been. And I am very optimistic about the coming year. Here's why:
1. Brian Johnson is back. With all due respect to last year's QB - Brett Ratliff - it was painful to watch the inefficient play. Not being able to hit WRs in their routes, not being able to run with certainty, and not being able to trust his competitiveness. Ratliff wasn't bad, especially if you consider Utah QBs in their history. But BJ was special. Before he went out injured in 2005, he was #4 in total offense in the entire NCAA - and that was as an 18 year old, inexperienced kid. He is now bigger, faster, stronger, and wiser - having been a coach for a year. I think that BJ will start off where he left off.
2. A better running game. Last year, Utah did finish respectable with their total running yards. The problem was consistency. Their most reliable RB was their CB - Eric Weddle. That's not good. The other backs couldn't find holes, and couldn't maintain consistency.
This year, BJ's mobility combined with a new bruising back in Matt Asiata, along with a very talented Ray Stowers, I think the running game can get established when they need to. That will open up everything else.
3. The best WRs in the NCAA. There are 7 WRs that would get playing time in nearly every school in the NCAA. If BJ stays healthy, and can establish the running game, we're going to see a lot of games with 300 yards in the air. Even if you're not a Utah fan, this team will be fun to watch.
4. Special teams. Louie Sakoda is the best punter/kicker in the NCAA, in my opinion. He's so clutch - and he's only a junior. And, if we ever need it, the guy proved against BYU that he can run if we need him to.
5. Athletic Secondary. Brice McCain runs a 4.3 40. Sean Smith has a 7 foot wing span. These two corners will give QBs fits, and they have very solid safeties, with Steve Tate as the anchor in the backfield where he can command the D with solid leadership. I think the passing D will be better than last year (when the Utes had all-american Eric Weddle).
6. Coach Whit has evolved. He is letting the team lead, and he is not working them too hard. He seems to have found his own style, something Utah fans and players have been hoping for since he took over. He is coaching the DBs, and he is keeping football fun - but commanding accountability. I think he's going to come into his own this year. Anybody who says that he's on the hot seat is an idiot. He only has two bowl wins in his first two years. He's a proven recruiter. He just needs a MWC championship - and I'd give him five years before we get worried about not having hardware yet. I think Whittingham will be a long-term coach for the Utes, and will take the program to a level its never been over a long period of time.
The game against Oregon State will tell us alot about this team. Will the team and fans expectations be crushed, like they were in the UCLA debocle last year? Or will it give the fans and team more optimism and confidence for the remainder of a brutal schedule.
If Utah can have the type of year they're capable of (no more than 2 losses) with this schedule, they'll finish top 15.
Stay tuned for a break-down of where this team is really at . . .
