Making a case

OK, here's my plea to anybody who votes for the all Mountain West Conference honors. I'm pretty sure that no local members of the media will be reading this, nor will any MWC coaches. But in case you are, please spend some time to hear me out.

If you're going to vote for anybody for first-team all conference safety, your first pick has got to be Steve Tate, and here's why:

1. Utah's passing D was unbelievable, and he was the anchor on that passing D. Just how tough was that passing D? Well, they were first in the MWC in passing yards, passing TDs, pass efficiency, pass completion ratio, and interceptions. Want more evidence of how good they were? They were also 12th in the NCAA in passing yards, fourth in the NCAA in completion ratio, 2nd in the NCAA in pass efficiency D, and first in the NCAA in passing TDs given up. Keep in mind that Utah lost the MWC defensive player of the year and 2nd round NFL pick Eric Weddle, and actually IMPROVEd in the secondary. You've GOT to recognize the best player on the best unit with first-team honors.

2. Utah's overall D was tops in the MWC, and Steve was the leader. He led the team with tackles (98 total, 8.3 per game), with Tackles for Loss (10.0), was fourth on the team in sacks (2.5), tied for second on the team in interceptions (3), and fourth on the team in pass break-ups (4). Again, you've GOT to recognize the best player on the best D in the MWC with first-team honors.

3. Look at his stats. He is the 2nd leading tackler amongst all safeties in the MWC. He is 1st in the MWC amongst safeties in Tackles for Loss (10.0), 1st in the MWC for safeties for INTs (3), and in the top three in sacks (2.5). He had five games during the year with double-digit tackles, and he also won MWC player of the week during the year.

4. His career. After the bowl game, he will be the first Utah DB in history to reach 100+ in consecutive years. He'll have more than 250 career tackles and five interceptions.

It's unfortunate that Utah and the entire MWC lacked the exposure that they've had in years past. I think that this has made it more difficult for Tate to stand out. But based on the above criteria, it isn't far-fetched to consider Tate the MWC defensive player of the year. But there is no doubt that his performance merits the recognition as the top player at his position in the MWC. He deserves first-team this year, and it would be a travesty if he doesn't get it.

No break-down

You'll see a trend in my posts. I typically just post all of my weekly write-ups, which I send to a number of fans each week. In those write-ups, I analyze the previous game and break-down the upcoming game - pointing out match-ups to watch for, players expected to step up, and predicted scores.

Well, the BYU/Utah game on Saturday is just too hard for me to break down. It hurt. Last year, a Y friend of mine was throwing smack my way, and I was fine with. I replied simply that the best Y team of all-time had to come behind to beat a Utah team, which had underachieved all year. He said that the close games rip at the heart, and because of his hatred for the U, he'd rather win a close one than a blow-out any day. I said I'd much rather have a blow-out.

But Saturday, I knew what he was talking about. Utah should have won. 4th and 18, and we could have humbled BYU, and put to rest the "Harline is Open" talk for good. But Utah lost the game. They lost it. It wasn't just the blown Cover 2 which kept the miracle drive going which lost it. It was the pathetic play by the offense. It was the mental break-down by the OC (and QB). Utah lost that game. And it still hurts . . .

But, I'd still rather lose as a Utah fan than win as a Y fan. :)

Utah vs. New Mexico Recap (BYU Preview)

Utah
at
(25) BYU

Date & Time: 12:00 PM MT, November 24, 2007
TV: CSTV, Versus, MTN
Radio: Kall 700, KSL 1160
Location: Rice Eccles South Stadium (AKA Lavell Edwards Stadium), Provo, UT
All-time series: Utah leads series 53-32-4
Last meeting: I don't remember how it ended.

Tailgate: The Crimson Club is sponsoring a "Party in Provo" at Provo High School, beginning at 8 am. They will have plenty of food, and the cost is $15 per person. So far, 650 Ute fans have pre-registered, so we're hoping to pop the bubble.

Week in Review: If you would have told me that we'd beat New Mexico by 18 points, I'd take that in a heart beat. However, as funny as it sounds, it was a scary game, and the Utes didn't look nearly as crisp (on offense) as they had in their previous three games. But credit New Mexico for the 'scrappy' game. They always seem to bring their best game against the Utes, and always give Utah fits. Even in 2004 the Fiesta Bowl year, the New Mexico game was the one game where the offense struggled the most. Such was the case this past Saturday, and even though his stats look alright (16-27), he missed quite a few passes, and the ball didn't look sharp. But before you look into that too much, I would credit the aggressive play of New Mexico for BJ's struggles.

Meanwhile, Utah's D was as good as it has been during the winning streak. Utah's D completely suffocated the Lobos - forcing four turnovers, four sacks, and allowing just 85 rushing yards, and just one touchdown on a ten-yard field.

Who stood out? Tate had 10 tackles, Robert Johnson played fantastic - forcing another fumble, while Paul Krueger had a 1.5 sacks, one of which gave Koa Misi the chance to return it for a touchdown.


What to expect this week: This game has all of the make-up of being another classic in the history of this heated rivalry - the league's top defense against the league's top offense. Utah is on a roll - outscoring their last three opponents 105-13. They're playing like they could beat anybody in the country right now. Their scoring D is fifth in the NCAA (15.5 ppg), but that still doesn't tell the whole story, as they are averaging just 8 points per game in their last five. Utah's pass D is as good as it gets - their pass efficiency D is ranked 3rd in the NCAA (ahead of USC, and behind just LSU and Ohio State). Meanwhile, BYU is the antithesis, as they are eighth in the nation in passing yards per game, and they are first in the conference in pass efficiency.

And on the other side of the ball, Utah is third in the MWC in scoring offense and second in the MWC in rushing offense (only behind Air Force) while BYU's rushing D is 10th in the NCAA (first in MWC).

Again, something is going to have to give.

For the sake of not giving away any game preparation secrets, I'm going to break this game down in a much more simplified way: comparing it to last year. BYU's offense was much better last year than this year (36.8 ppg vs. 30.8 ppg), and their D was better (15.3 ppg vs 18.6 ppg).
Meanwhile, the 2007 Utah team is much better than last year's team. Their offense has been better, with a rushing attack that didn't exist last year. And their defense is much better (20.2 ppg vs. 15.5 ppg) and their passing D is much better (220 ypg surrendered vs. 180 ypg and 59.3% vs. 51%). And last year, Utah had a great game plan - to play physical, jam the line and blitz aggressively. Unfortunately, last year, they didn't begin implementing this game plan until they were down 14-0 in the second quarter. When they began playing aggressively on D, they dominated the second and third quarters, ultimately taking the lead until they decided to go prevent on the last play. But, the point is, last year, BYU was much better than they are this year, and they had to come from behind to beat the Utes.

This Utah team will not let BYU throw for more than 250 yards, and they will not let BYU beat them on the ground. If Utah comes out playing the same level of intensity on D as they have the last few games, and if they scheme well for Unga, then I really do not see BYU scoring more than two touchdowns.


Here are the keys:

1. Utah's defense. Utah's scoring D is ranked 5th in the NCAA, and they are improving each week. They have now given up just one TD in the past 14 quarters - and in the past four games, they have not given up a touchdown drive more than 50 yards. The key is on the front line. This front line will be largely outmanned against BYU's line, who can pass as the first season of the "Biggest Loser". But these defensive linemen are faster than any BYU will have faced. Between Krueger, Burnett, Misi, and Long, these guys can and should get past BYU's big, but slow, O-line. I expect at least three sacks on Hall, with at least one of those creating a turnover. Hall has been very prone to turn the ball over (-6, 8th in the MWC), and Utah has been very opportunistic with TOs this year (+10, 1st in MWC).
The key in this game will be with the safeties and linebackers, as it will be up to them to prevent a rushing attack. Last year, Tate held Curtis Brown to 45 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards - well below his average. Look for the same type of shut-down performance with Unga this year. The safeties, however, will have to account for 6'5" Dennis Pitta, as well as Unga, and the LBs will have to stay on their assignments. Look for Nai Fotu to have a big impact on this game.

2. Utah's offense. Brian Johnson is going to come out and test this BYU passing D. Not only is the BYU secondary vulnerable healthy (as seen vs. Tulsa), but they are currently NOT healthy, and they need to be exploited. BJ didn't have a great game against UNM, but look for him to go long to pick on the converted cornerback, Ben Criddle, trying to anchor the BYU D. Wyoming, as pathetic as Sween looked vs. Utah, threw for 277 yards on BYU last week. The BYU secondary was called for PI a few times in that game, where they held when it was apparent they were getting beat. I'm looking for Braden Godfrey, Derek Richards, and Marquis Wilson to be long ball targets and creating some very big plays on Saturday.
Mack will have a very hard time hitting 100 yards on Saturday, but I do see the OL and Mack having a chip on their shoulders, and giving it all they have. I expect Mack to have about 75 yards rushing on Saturday.
Look for Brian's break-out game on Saturday. It may not be a huge game statistically for him, but he will manage the game well, keeping sustained drives and not allowing any TOs.

Stat of the week: Here's a stat for you: since 2000, when BYU fails to score 20 points, they are 1-22. In fact, if they score less than 30 points, they are just .300. If Utah can play the same type of D that they did last year in the 2nd and 3rd quarter (and like they have for most of this season), and not allow any Y defensive or special teams TDs, then Utah will win. It's that simple
Here's another quick fact: BYU still sucks.


My pick: Utah 27, Team Down South 17

Next game: Utah in San Diego vs. Navy (NCAA's top rushing offense) on December 20th at the Poinsettia Bowl.