Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Utah at TCU Recap (Utah at CSU Preview)

UTAH UTES

AT

Colorado State Rams

Date & Time: 3:30 PM MT, Saturday, October 27, 2007
TV: Mtn. (??)
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium, Fort Collins, CO
All-time series: Utah leads series 51-22-1 (sounds very similar to the Utah/BYU series, doesn’t it?)
Last meeting: 2006, Utah 35-22

Tailgate: Grill up some Ram Chops on your own. But make it a longer get together so you can tune in to Game 3 of the World Series right after the game. And if you’re a die-hard sports fan, then drive to the CSU game on Saturday, hit Game 4 of the World Series in Denver on Sunday, and stay the night to hit Monday Night Football on Monday.

Week in Review: So, the light turned green again on Thursday, and the ‘good’ Utes showed up for the fourth straight game. To the average football fan – the one perusing the satellite during the commercial break from the baseball game or the South Florida game who happened to stumble across the Versus network – Thursday’s game probably didn’t seem to be very impressive. But as Utah fans, we should be thrilled. Not only did Coach Whittingham win his fourth straight (longest in his career), but it propelled the Utes to .500 in the MWC and put them within two wins (meaning, they have to just go .500 for the rest of their schedule) to hit a bowl game, and maybe, just maybe – if they’re real lucky, a slice of the MWC title. Who would have thunk that would be possible a month ago?? But the Utes have rebounded nicely.

But as for the actual break-down of this game, the best thing to do is just read my preview. As predicted, the Utes forced Dalton to throw by containing the running game, and they did so very impressively. For some strange reason, TCU gave up quickly on the running game, only rushing 21 times. But kudos to Gary Anderson, as he did a brilliant job of preparing for what TCU was going to do, and the D gave so many looks – bringing the house on one play, and only rushing two the next play. The confusion led to two big sacks and FOUR interceptions (it would have been seven INTs, save some better hands and some better eyes by the refs). Tate had a monster day statistically (12 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT (should have been two)) and non-statistically (he was forced to play man to man on many downs, and did a great job of shutting down his opponent). In the end, Dalton couldn’t get anything going, and he finished with just 150 yards passing and 40% completion ratio. Utah’s defense was as prepared and as dominant as we’ve seen them this year. Frankly, if special teams were coached semi-decently, Utah would have given up just seven points in that game.

On offense, Utah started very strong, driving on the ground and in the air, and (believe it or not) finishing with a punch-in from the ONE YARD LINE (seriously!). But the momentum was lost after two horrible special teams plays – first the blocked punt by a player who has blocked four on the year (why didn’t we scheme for him?) and the next kick-off, the coverage was pathetic. So two quick scores within 1:30 let TCU back into it, and made the Utes go much more conservative offensively. But that conservative play would have changed the outcome at UNLV. They stuck to the run, and gave Mack another 100 yard game, and BJ made great decisions. Sure, it was too conservative for my own liking in the second half, but a win is a win is a win. And that was the type of game that Utah would have found a way to lose last season.


My prediction was 26-20, and the final score was 27-20. Why did I say 26? Not sure. But at least if you would have listened to me, you’d be a little richer right now.


What to expect this week: Coach Whit has already pulled out the old cliché – “this CSU team is the best 1-6 team in the nation.” Sure, it’s probably a true statement. But isn’t that kind of like me bragging about being the best athlete in my Thursday night Dungeons and Dragons group? It’s really not saying a whole lot.


But we know what the coach means. CSU cannot be taken lightly. Sure, they had lost 13 in a row, before their big win last week. But this is a CSU team who lost to Colorado by a field goal in OT – just two weeks before Colorado knocked-off Oklahoma. This is a team who lost to Cal by just six points. It’s never easy to beat CSU in CSU. Utah has only done it twice in fourteen years.



Why Utah should win Saturday:


1. CSU’s Defense.
CSU has the worst rush defense in the MWC. Worse than SDSU, and in the bottom 15 in the entire NCAA. To give you an idea, they have given up an average of 212 yards per game and five yards per carry on the ground, and have given up 17 rushing touchdowns so far this season. With Mack and the offensive line on a serious roll, Utah can keep this on the ground, control the clock, and have a hay day. Expect Utah to rack up over 250 rushing yards, with Mack accounting for at least 150 of those yards.
Their passing D isn’t nearly as porous, but that’s likely only because teams don’t have to throw on them. They’re still letting opponents complete 60% of their pass attempts, surrendering over 200 yards per game in the air, while managing only five INTs (lowest in the MWC). Establishing the run early will set up a nice play-action, and I’m expecting great play from Godfrey, Richards, and Hernandez. Expect Johnson to throw for at least 200 yards in this one.

2. Utah's Pass Defense. Utah’s game plan on Saturday will be very similar to their game plan for TCU. They will scheme to contain the run, and dare Hanie to throw. Why? Because he has thrown more INTs (12) than TDs this season. They do have a long-ball WR threat in Damon Morton – who is averaging 22 yards per catch and has five TDs. But the Utes should feel confident about putting a speedster like McCain or long-arms Smith on him.
What Utah does not want to give up is the big run play and CSU has a very formidable 1-2 punch in Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell. Johnson had a 45 run against UNLV on Saturday, and he’s averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
Look for Gabe Long and Steve Tate at being instrumental in stopping the run, and forcing Hanie to throw. Then, look for at least two INTs for the Utes.

The Magic Number: Since 2001, Utah is 33-5 (87%) when scoring 30 points or more. CSU is averaging 31.3 points given up per game. The only teams that haven’t scored 30 on them have been SDSU and TCU (and even they came very, very close).

My pick: Utah 31, CSU 17

Next week:
Bye.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Utah vs. SDSU Recap (TCU Preview)

UTAH UTES
AT
TCU HORNED FROGS

Date & Time: 6:00 PM MT, October 18, 2007
TV: VERSUS
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Amon Carter Stadium , Fort Worth , TX
All-time series: Utah leads series 3-1
Last meeting: 2006, Utah 20-7
Tailgate: On your own.

Week in Review: The question going into this game was, which Utah team was going to show up? Unfortunately, getting ready to watch the Utes (of the past two years), I get the same type of nervous feeling that I get when going through customs in Mexico. Don't pretend you don't know what I'm talking about. When the little official-looking guy takes your passport and tells you to "touch de button". It's all random, and you really have no idea what to expect. Will the traffic light turn green. Or will it turn red? Fortunately for us all, it was green, and the good Utah team showed up Saturday. Yea! Darrell Mack showed that his previous three games weren't flukes. The guy is looking legit. He put up 50 yards of offense himself in the first drive. Unfortunately, his big play produced no points (as he fumbled in the end zone). The only gripe on Saturday's game was that the first drive was more or less a microcosm of the rest of the game. The Utes could move the ball at will (520 yards of offense), but they left a lot of points on the field. As expected, Utah exploited the poor rushing D of SDSU.
Defensively, Utah looked better than expected. In fact, they probably looked better than they have all year - including the UCLA game. The only reason that they gave up a TD was because of a gimmick play where their QB had a 35 yard catch. The D came out aggressive, and only gave up 8 first downs the entire game. As expected, they got to O'Connell five times. What's surprising, though, is that at least three of those sacks were coverage sacks. Utah's passing D looked very good, which led to an Aztec offense looking as confused as their coach Chuck Long, who apparently thinks its still cool to sport the Oakley RazorBlade sunglasses (yeah, the Boz retired a while ago).

Those who missed the game (and the red seats indicated that a lot of fans did) missed out on an opportunity to see Utah's future shine. True freshman Corbin Louks threw another TD and also had a 40 yard run. True freshman Jereme Brooks caught another TD pass. True freshman Nai Fotu had the hit of the game, as well as a forced fumble and big sack. It was exciting to see these young kids make such a big contribution so early, and should get you excited for the next few years.


What to expect this week: If Utah really wants to show that they've turned the corner this season, they have to find a way to win on Thursday. In Whittingham's three seasons as the Utes Head Coach, he has never won four in a row. A win at TCU would give the Utes a ton of momentum, get them back to .500 in conference play, and give the fans something to be very optimistic about. But it's not going to be easy. Based on history, you'd give TCU the nod. The Horned Frogs 23-4 home record (since 2003) is one of the very best in the NCAA. In addition, they have only lost one MWC game at home in three seasons in the conference. Even though they get maybe 15,000 home fans to their games, the Horned Frogs are a very tough team to beat at home.

But based on momentum, you'd have to give Utah the nod. In the past two games, the Utes have found a running game (over 250 rushing yards per game the past two games), maintained a great passing game (Brian Johnson is completing over 70% of his passes the past two games), and the D has completely disrupted the opponents game plans, holding each of their opponents well below their season averages (with 8 sacks the past two games, under 110 rushing yards given up in two games combined).

In the end, I'm going with Utah (big surprise), and here's why:

1. Utah's offense. Utah has put up some impressive offensive numbers the past two games. Mack has found his rhythm, and is averaging over six yards per carry. Not only that, Utah is finding other unique ways to put up an additional 100 rushing yards per game - like using Louks on the keepers, using BJ on an occasional option play, and using their receivers on the sweeps. If Utah can be persistent with their running attack, they'll find success. Last week, TCU gave up 109 yards to Stanford's running back - which was his season high. TCU's passing D is much stiffer, and nobody has been able to put up more than 250 yards on the Horned Frogs. Utah should look to get about 220 yards passing, but most importantly, not throw any picks. BJ must show the poise and patience that he has shown in the past two games.

2. Utah's Defense. Utah's pass coverage is as athletic as any that TCU has faced this year. While it will hurt to not have Robert Johnson on the field this game, Sean Smith and Brice McCain will not allow the freshman QB Dalton to get in any sort of rhythm. Meanwhile, Utah's fast D-line (particularly Burnett and Krueger) will be able to get some pressure on Dalton (who is getting sacked about twice per game on average), and hopefully rush him into some poor decisions. The key for the Utes will be to slow Aaron Brown and the rest of TCUs running attack - just like we saw them do against Louisville and SDSU. In fact, Utah's best bet is to force Dalton to throw by focusing more on the run. If they do, Utah should be able to control the game.

The Magic Number: With Gary Patterson as head coach, TCU is 38-0 when allowing 17 points or less. Overall, the Frogs have won 53 consecutive games when holding the opponent to 17-or-fewer points. If Utah doesn't score 17 points, they'll lose. If they can score their season average (27 points), they'll win, as its not likely the Utes will allow TCU to put up more than their average (23 ppg).

My pick: Utah 26, TCU 20


Next week: Utah at CSU at Fort Collins, CO at 4 pm MT, Saturday October 27th.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Utah vs. Louisville Recap (SDSU Break-Down)

UTAH UTES VS SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS
Date & Time: 1:00 PM MT October 5th, 2007
TV: Comcast Channel 111 (High Def Channel 675)
Radio: Kall 700
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
All-time series: Utah leads series 13-12-1
Last meeting: 2006, Utah 38-7

Tailgate: We'll be at our usual spot at 10:30 am - in preparation for the Ute Walk at that time. We'll have some Mexican food, but we'd love anybody who is planning on coming to let me know, and let me know what you'd like to bring so we can plan well.

Week in Review: Sorry for the delay on this week's break-down. I'm in Mexico right now, and I'm having to deliver this via telegram.
Utah vs. Louisville. Wow. That was definitely one of my favorite regular season road trips I've experienced. Louisville is really a cool city, and their fans are great. Honestly, I've never met nicer fans. I'm not used to fans actually welcoming us to their stadium and their tailgates, and going out of their way to be nice. A contrast to attending games at places like Colorado State where the fans also go out of their way, but usually to say "F*#& Utes!" And not only were there fans polite, their players actually came over to the Utah section after the game to give five to all of Utah's fans. Seriously. And Papa John Stadium is really nice - every seat is a bucket seat, it's really clean, great concessions, cool Johnny Unitas (alum) museum, and according to the players, the nicest facilities they've had thus far.
But at the end of the day, we really don't care if the fans are polite or not. The fact is, if the Utes came out playing like they did in Vegas, I probably would have hated Louisville and their fans. But alas, the Utes came out looking like a top 25 team in the first half. They really looked unstoppable. On nearly every drive, Utah imposed their will and it seemed that the only reasons they didn't sustain a couple drives was because of dumb, recognizable errors (like the clock mismanagment at the end of the first half). And as great as the offense looked, the D looked even better. Louisville was averaging over 200 yards per game rushing. At the half, Utah held them to -26 yards. Louisville had allowed six sacks all year, and at the half, Utah had two.
But Utah's allergy or fear to stepping on the opponents throat reared its ugly head in the second half. Despite Utah's success in a Cover 3 in the first half, the coaches decided it would be best to go to a loose zone in the second half, and Brohm and company responded by putting up 400 yards of offense in the second half. That's not a typo. 400 yards in the second half.
Fortunately, Louisville's D is as good as I thought they were, and Brian Johnson and Darrell Mack took advantage of each possession, and ultimately milked out the win by scoring last. But despite the soft ending, it ended up being a very close game, and a great victory for this team. They showed great on national TV, they beat a team that had national championship hopes at the beginning of the year, and they knocked the rust off of Brian Johnson to help him and the team gain confidence.

As for the prediction, well, I'd brag about being so dead on (I picked the Utes: 37-35. Actual score: 44-35), but I'd be creating false expectations for the future. Like the Utes should do, I'll just take my small victory and move on.


What to expect this week: If Utah shows the same desire to win as they have in their three wins this year, Utah wins. San Diego State, while quite talented, is just not a great team. Their wins this year have come against a D-AA school, and Colorado State (who has lost 12 straight games).

Here are the main reasons Utah wins this week:
1. San Diego State's rushing D. SDSU is giving up 184 yards per game, against pretty average competition. With Utah finally finding confidence in their running game (having just rushed for 260 yards last week), I see Mack having his fourth 100-yard game in his last five starts, and Utah should at least get 174 yards for the game. Look for Louks to come in to run the option this week for a few plays. He'll be used quite frequently for the rest of the year.

2. San Diego State's passing D. While we're making jokes of Louisville's passing D, the Cardinals secondary hasn't shown to be as inept as San Diego State's pass defense, as the Aztecs are giving up an average of nearly 320 yards per game (115th in the NCAA). That's a lot of yards. And they have given up 12 TDs in the air in just five games. This is another game where Utah should spread it around, and hopefully give Louie's leg some rest. The Utes offensive scheme has changed, catering to Ludwig's style, and Brian Johnson also looks more comfortable in the drop-back offense. He's showing great patience and great vision - often making passes to his third or fourth option.

3. San Diego State's Pass Protection. While Kevin O'Connel is a very good QB (probably the second best QB Utah will face this year, only behind Brohm), the Aztec O-line hasn't been doing him any favors. They have given up 15 sacks in just 5 games so far this season. For those counting at home, they're on pace to give up 36 sacks on the year. Compare that with Brohm, who is on pace to be sacked just 13 times all year, and you'll see why Kruger, Burnett, Misi, and Puccinelli should be pretty excited for Saturday. It's interesting to note that the Utes have 10 tackles for loss (15th in the NCAA) for a loss of 151 yards (10th in NCAA). The key will be for Utah's front four to get pressure on O'Connell without needing to blitz, as Utah will want to play back and prevent O'Connell from making big plays. I'm expecting no fewer than four sacks for the Utes, with at least one of those sacks resulting in a turnover.

However, if Utah does not exploit this weakness, and does not get adequate pressure on O'Connell, then it could be tough for Utah to stop him from putting up big numbers, especially considering that their #1 WR (Sweeney) is very good WR (averaging over 100 ypg), and Utah's passing D could be going through some learning curves, as Sean Smith is not expected to start this week (coaches are not happy with his poor tackling).

Take note: So far this year, there definitely have been two Utah teams. The team capable of killing top-25 teams, and the team capable of being killed by lousy teams. Here's the trick to determining which Utah team you're watching: watch the tone of the first quarter. As they go in the first, they go in the game. If we see Utah playing conservatively on defense in the first quarter, allowing SDSU to drive fairly easily (even if they don't end up in the end zone), and if we see Utah's offense stall in their first two possessions, be worried. If they come out strong, Utah will come away with their first MWC win.


My pick: Utah 34, San Diego State 17


Next week: Utah at TCU at Fort Worth San Diego State at Rice Eccles Stadium at 6 pm, Thursday October 18th.

Friday, October 5, 2007

Utah vs. Utah State Summary (Louisville Preview)

UTAH UTES
at
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

Date & Time: 6:00 PM MT October 5th, 2007
TV: ESPN (Yes, this is not a typo)
Radio: Kall 700 Location: Louisville, Kentucky
All-time series: Utah leads series 2-0 Last meeting: 1998, Utah 45-22
Tailgate: Away game, so there is no tailgate planned. But since the game is at Papa John Stadium, order in some pizza and enjoy the first and only time you'll see the Utes on a real TV station.

Week in Review: First, my apology for not sending out an e-mail after that debocle in Sin City. I left town the following week. That, combined with the fact that every time I thought about that game, I wanted to vomit.

As for the Utah State game, it was a win. When Urban Meyer was here in 2003, after a rather unimpressive win against Utah State, and with the media trying to get him to diminish the win, he said "this program is not in the position to shun a win against a Division I program." The same couldn't be more true for the 2007 Utes. Sure, it was disappointing to see the offense disappear in the first and fourth quarters. But a win is a win is a win. Utah needed to regain some confidence, give Brian Johnson some reps, and spread the ball around a little more than usual. Were there some obvious areas where Utah needs to improve? Definitely. Most importantly, Utah needs to decide on an offensive scheme. After two serious injuries in his past three games, Brian runs much more tentatively, and the spread option may not be Utah's best system. Also, the entire team needs to improve their blocking (the OL needs to improve run blocking, WRs need to improve their downfield blocking, and Mack needs to improve his pass protection). Defensively, Utah's rushing defense needs to buckle down. The middle DL seems non-existent. If the DTs can't bring more pressure, than they will need to play more aggressively with more blitz schemes.

What to expect this week: While I'm hopeful, the numbers indicate that I'm an idiot. Here are some of those reality-check stats:

1. Utah's total offense: 319 ypg (108th in the NCAA) while Louisville's total offense: 601 ypg (2nd in the NCAA).
Yeah. For those who aren't great with math, that's a big difference. Utah hasn't even cracked 400 yards in a game (even against UCLA).
Meanwhile, Louisville averages 400 yards of passing yards each game (3rd in the NCAA) while Utah averages 227 ypg (71st in the NCAA) The same concern is points per game. 24 for Utah. 46 for Louisville. Again. Big difference.

2. Louisville averages 201 rushing yards per game (25th in the NCAA) and 92 ypg (106th in the NCAA).
So, many people were thinking, Louisville is a passing team, and Utah's defensive strength is passing. Maybe Louisville won't pass as much. Uh. Not so fast. Utah averages 201 ypg on the ground. Out of all of Utah's opponents so far, only Air Force averages more (AFA with 225), and they average that many mostly because of their big game against Utah. Utah's rushing D has to step up and not let their running back, Anthony Allen, average his current average of 6 ypg - or it will be a long day.

3. Utah hasn't proven to be a great road team.
Excluding bowl games, Utah's record is 6-8 on the road. The biggest road win under the Whittingham era has been at BYU in 2005. Besides that victory, they have underperformed on the road against favored opponents.

Why I'm hopeful:

1. Utah's passing D is good. Their ypg (151) is 9th in the NCAA. They're also 11th in the NCAA in pass efficiency D (95.2).
Look for the defensive secondary - namely Brice McCain, Sean Smith, Steve Tate, and Robert Johnson - to cause some rare turn-overs from Brohm. I expect to see frequent blitzes from Tate (at SS) and Sylvester (at LB), hoping to rattle Brohm in the same way that the D rattled Olson.

2. Louisville's D is not good. They give up 417 yards per game to their opponents and 28 ppg - and that's against not-so-great competition. They also have not shown a great ability to create interceptions on defense. If Brian can stay poised, and avoid poor decisions, this could be the highest production (in terms of total yards) that Utah will have thus far.

3. Utah has Louie. Seriously. Special Teams is a big advantage. Utah is 7th in the NCAA in average punt distance (45.3), while Louisville is 7th from the bottom (33). Also, Derek Richards is sixth in the nation in punt return average (21 ypp). Not to mention the fact that Louie is Utah's second best running back on the team, this is a big benefit for the Utes. The problem is that field position hasn't mattered much for Louisville. They punt once or twice per game, is all.

4. I'm a Utah Man, Sir. That's right. I'm a homer, so I don't always base my predictions on reality.
My pick: Utah 37, Louisville 35


Next week: Utah vs San Diego State at Rice Eccles Stadium at 1 pm, Saturday October 13th.
Tailgating in the lot at 11 am.